Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 222148

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
248 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

Upper level analysis has highly amplified ridge over the western
CONUS, with shortwave sliding through the Great Lakes region. At
the surface, weak low pressure is located across central ND with
warm front dropping south through central SD, and cold front
extending back into MT and southern AB. Much of the CWA lies
within the warm sector with 2pm temps in the 60s and lower 70s.
Winds are breezy out of the west to northwest.

Surface low in ND will continue to push east-southeast tonight as
weak Canadian high settles into the eastern Dakotas. Partly cloudy
skies and mild downslope flow will continue tonight, with lows
only falling off into the 30s and 40s.

On Thanksgiving, upper ridge axis will move into the Northern
Plains with even warmer temps expected, 70s on the SD plains.
Record highs in the Rapid City area are in the upper 60s so expect
some records to be set. Near record to record highs are expected
across much of the area.

Substantial northern stream trof will work through the Northern
Plains on Friday. 850mb winds will increase to 40-50kts with good
mixing behind frontal boundary likely pushing surface winds into
the advisory range on the SD plains. Northwest winds of 25 to 35
mph with gusts to 50 mph will be likely for much of Friday morning
as the cold front moves through. Winds should begin to subside a
bit during the afternoon hours. Little moisture to work with so
any precipitation should be light.

Upper ridge then rebuilds across the Northern Plains over the
weekend into Monday with possibly some more record highs on Sunday
or Monday. Dry conditions expected. An even more significant trof
is expected to move through on Tuesday with better chances for


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1021 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. West to
northwest winds at 15-25 kt are expected this afternoon.




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