Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291936
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
136 PM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

19z surface analysis had old frontal boundary from central WY
into central KS with weak trough into the Black Hills. 1- 1.5KJ/kg
MLCAPE has developed along this trough with 15-20m/s 0-6km bulk
shear. Tail end of shortwave over eastern MT agitating the
atmosphere over the CWA helping TSRA to develop over the higher
terrain early this afternoon. CAMs, and latest KUDX radar,
show activity will move southeast with a few strong and isolated
severe storms. Activity will shift southeast overnight as
shortwave moves into the eastern Dakotas. Temperatures will be
near guidance.

Saturday and Saturday night, upper ridge builds from the southwest
US into the northern plains with implied subsidence and drying.
However, decent MLCAPE will be available in the afternoon and
evening hours with isolated TSRA possible over southeast half of the
CWA. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 134 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Weak upper level ridge slides across the Northern Plains Sunday
as upper low moves across southwestern Canada. A weak cold front
is progged to move into western portions of the area late in the
day and then stall out over the cwa. Weak shortwave energy and
strengthening low level jet over the Dakotas Sunday night should
lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
night. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially from the
Black Hills eastward.

Upper low continues to move eastward across southern Canada early
next week, with increasing west-southwest upper flow across the
region. Series of weak impulses aloft, along with frontal boundary
remaining across the area, should result in at least isolated
thunderstorms at times Monday through Wednesday. High pressure aloft
to the south and west of the region late in the week is expected to
bring mostly dry weather. Temperatures through the extended period
will be near to slightly above average, with the warmest conditions
early in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 134 PM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions generally expected across the area through
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur this afternoon into tonight, best chances from the Black
Hills area to southern SD, with local MVFR conditions.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Helgeson
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26


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