Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 030844
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
244 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS INTO THE CNDN
ROCKIES...HOWEVER A CUT OFF LOW HAS SLID INTO THE GREAT BASIN
SLOWING DOWN THE OVERALL PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS KEEPING THE REGION CLEAR/DRY. SE/RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES EAST. OVERALL SHOULD
STILL BE A QUIET DAY TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
ACROSS SCNTRL SD AND ALONG THE SRN CWA BORDER INTO NE WY. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

THETA E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVNG CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS ERN WY TUE MRNG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. STRONG MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE LOW TUE WITH PWATS RISING TO 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. LINGERING
STORMS TUE MRNG WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTN W/
DIURNAL HEATING AND BROAD SCALE FORCING MOVING IN. RIGHT MOVER STORM
MOTION WILL BE VERY SLOW...SO ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL
HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WILL MENTION HEAVY
RAINFALL TUE AFTN/EVNG FOR NOW. CONVECTION WILL END GRADUALLY LATE
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S...BUT COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER IF STORMS GET GOING EARLY IN
THE AFTN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. FLAT UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAK TROF OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN THOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AS UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALBERTA. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY EXPECTED WITH THE
STORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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