Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 232307

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
507 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Water vapor shows nearly stationary low over srn SASK with fairly
dry sw flow extending into the nrn plains. A notable short wave is
ejecting newd through far nrn CO with a few -tsra already forming
over far sern WY. At the sfc...weak low is located over far nwrn

Tonight...a few -tsra are possible given the short wave ejecting
newd...but given minimal moisture and instability overall coverage
will be limited to mainly higher terrain as well as nwrn SD in
closer proximity to the sfc low.

Tuesday...slightly warmer temps are expected. Dry conditions
expected in the morning...but a more substantial negatively
tilted short wave will eject newd towards the cwfa by later in the
aftn. MLCAPE expected to rise into the 1000-2000J/KG range along
with ample shear for some strong to severe storms...with the best
convective parameters generally along/South of I-90. Best
concentration of storms will likely be in the BLKHLS as well as
southwest through south central SD. Precipitable waters in the
125-175% of normal range from southwest through south central SD
could result in heavier rains for that area. Storms will end from
southwest to northeast by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

Persistent upper level troughing over the northwest
CONUS will keep active southwest flow across the Northern Plains
through the Memorial Day weekend. Periodic shortwave energy will
eject out of the trough, keeping a daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast through the holiday weekend.
Temperatures will be near seasonal averages, with highs each day in
the mid 60s to upper 70s. Lows at night will be in the 40s to lower


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 505 PM MDT Mon May 23 2016

An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible
across far northwest South Dakota this evening. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through Tuesday morning. The next system
will bring sct shra and ts to much of the region tues aft and eve.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...JC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.