Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 222326

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
526 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Broad upper ridge is centered over the CONUS, with the next
trough moving over the west coast. A tight pressure gradient
between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west is
resulting in gusty southerly winds across the western SD plains.
Winds have been 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph at times,
strongest over the Faith area, but have dissipated early this
afternoon. Radar is picking up on a few weak echoes moving into
northeastern WY. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures are
rising into the 50s and 60s.

Some weak instability over northeastern WY may result in some
showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and
early this evening. However, soundings show pretty dry low levels,
so rain may not reach the ground. Precipitation chances will
increase overnight as upper trough approaches the region, mainly in
the form of rain. Lows tonight will be around 40.

By Thursday morning, a band of rain will have developed across
northeastern WY and northwestern SD, along an area of enhanced 700
mb frontogenesis and upper divergence. Upper low will close off over
CO, and precip will shift southeastward across the CWA as low
gradually moves eastward into KS. Meanwhile, cooler air will filter
in from the north. Highs Thursday will range from the 50s across
northwestern SD, the Black Hills, and northeastern WY, to near 70
across south central SD. As temps dip into the 30s overnight, some
rain may change to snow, especially across the northern Hills, where
around an inch of snow may fall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Upper low will continue slowly moving through central
plains Friday, with precipitation gradually shifting south of the
forecast area. Progressive flow will continue into next week.
Chances for precipitation ramp up Monday night and Tuesday with a
stronger upper trough impacting the area. At this time temperatures
look warm enough for most of the precip to remain rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued At 519 PM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Isolated to scattered rain showers with isolated thunderstorms
will cross northeastern Wyoming and parts of far western South
Dakota during the late afternoon/early evening. There is a chance
of showers over northeastern Wyoming and far western South Dakota
through tonight, with showers likely across those same areas on
Thursday. LCL MVFR cigs are possible near any showers or
thunderstorms tonight. Widespread IFR CIGS will develop over
northeastern Wyoming and parts of the Black Hills around 11Z
Thursday morning and will continue through the day there. MVFR
cigs are expected through the day on Thursday over northwestern
South Dakota.




SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
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