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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010412
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
912 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
STATES...WITH LOW SPINNING OVER CA. NORTHERNMOST WAVE WITHIN THE
TROUGH IS PUSHING THROUGH MT. AXIS OF SURFACE TROUGH HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...BUT THE NORTHWESTERN CWA REMAINS IN THE TEENS.
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

UPPER WAVE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST US. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST LOW MAY REACH PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR SOUTHWEST SD TONIGHT...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO
THE REGION...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT THE SREF CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DID KEEP SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HILLS/CONVERGENCE ZONE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT
OVER NORTHWEST SD BY MIDDAY SO EXPECT SOME BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. ADDED A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HILLS AS FROUDE NUMBER SHOOTS UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

MONDAY WILL FEATURE A BRIEF WARM UP ACROSS THE CWA AS SURFACE WINDS
SWITCH FROM NW TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
WESTERLY. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME CRASHING INTO THE CWA BY MONDAY
EVENING...BRINGING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AS STRONG CAA TAKES
PLACE.

THE COLD WILL LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP IS
EXPECTED. THIS NEXT WARM UP... HOWEVER... LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LONG
LIVED AND DRY. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING A VERY STRONG
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN US BY MIDWEEK AND PERSISTING WELL
BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT HIGHS DURING THAT
PERIOD TO BE WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 911 PM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR
WRN SD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...JOHNSON