Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 281759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1159 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

LL POS THETA-E ADV OVERNIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL BLACK HILLS. DIURNAL HEATING WITH SE
FLOW AND MID RIDGE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD SHOWER THERE
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHARPEN AS TROF OVER EASTERN US
DEEPENS AND ANOTHER TROF APPROACHES WEST COAST. SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE WILL CROSS RIDGE ONTO THE PLAINS. FIRST WAVE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CROSS WY TODAY AND MOVE INTO NE. EXPECT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THETA-E RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
WY...AND CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE CIN.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE SAME AREA TUESDAY AS LEE
TROF DEVELOPS AS INVERTED TROF FORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN WY. DRY...STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER REST OF FORECAST
AREA.

SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING N-S OVER CENTRAL DAKOTAS-NE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER WESTERN SD WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEAST...
BUT CAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER AS WINDS AND CLOUD COVER INCREASE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A STRONG
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CONTINENT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LARGE SCALE MAPS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MOSTLY DRY NW FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AND STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OF SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST
WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
NEAR STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...MLS






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