Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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647
FXUS63 KUNR 241958
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
158 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Upper level analysis shows ridging over the northern
plains, with a low over southern Alberta. Skies are mostly clear
across the CWA. Somewhat tight pressure gradient ahead of incoming
low pressure is creating breezy southeasterly winds across western
SD, especially across the northwest. Temperatures at 1PM are
climbing into the 70s.

Weak instability ahead of the next wave may result in a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms this evening, especially across
northwestern SD. A cold front will pass through the area tonight,
and winds will become northwesterly. Lows will be in the 40s.

Northwest winds will become gusty on Thursday across northwestern
SD. MAV guidance/GFS forecast soundings indicate the potential for
advisory criteria winds, which is supported by the CAA. However,
MET and ECM guidance and NAM forecast soundings show weaker winds
below criteria. Forecast pressure rises are less than 3mb/3hr.
Still looks like Harding county may marginally reach wind advisory
criteria Thursday afternoon, but with model conflicts will hold
off on issuance for now. Highs Thursday behind the front will be
in the 60s to lower 70s.

The Canadian low pressure system will continue slowly meandering
through the northern CONUS and into the Great Lakes Region this
weekend and into early next week. This will keep temperatures near
to slightly below average, with some small chances for
showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 1113 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds can be expected today.
Isolated to scattered storms will develop late this afternoon into
the evening ahead of a cold front. MVFR conditions are possible
near heavier storms. Behind the front...gusty winds will switch to
the northwest mid to late evening.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pojorlie
AVIATION...13



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