Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 232034
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGH FROM WESTERN ND INTO CENTRAL NE
WITH LOW SPINNING OVER KICR. NARROW BAND OF WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED
FROM LOW INTO THE BLACK HILLS WHICH MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED -TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGE POKES INTO CWA AND
UPPER LOW IS WHISKED AWAY BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL/THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA
RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. REGRESSIONS SUGGEST
LOWER 90S FOR POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES...BUT CERTAINLY WELL INTO THE
80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. NOW THAT FALL IS HERE...SUMMER HAS BEGUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS REGION WILL KEEP WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW DOWN EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATER IN
THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY NOW LOOKING MAINLY DRY AND MILD AS WELL.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO BE ON
MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND SWINGS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO STAY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 227 PM MDT TUE SEP 23 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SD...AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



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