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000
FXUS63 KUNR 271133
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
533 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH JET STREAK FROM TOP OF
RIDGE OVER SD INTO BASE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. SURFACE
RIDGE OVER MT...WITH A WEAK TROF DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN ND...SOME STRATUS BEHIND IT MAY CLIP FAR NORTHWESTERN SD
THIS MORNING. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING AREA DRY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE FROM UT-WY AND INTO NE. CAPE
INCREASES OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SD CORNER MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER 500 J/KG
WITH CIN LT 100 J/KG...WHILE THETA-E RIDGE PUSHES NORTHWARD...SO
INCREASED POPS FOR THOSE ZONES. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER CAA AS
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WINDS SWITCH TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AGAIN
TODAY...AND TONIGHT AS WEAK RETURN FLOW REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR
110 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO
BREAK THROUGH AND PRODUCE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY
AFFECTING SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THE BLKHLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...CARPENTER
AVIATION...CARPENTER