National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KUNR 091724
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1124 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO
THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...BROAD W/SW FLOW KEEPING TEMPS RATHER
MILD OVERNIGHT.

TODAY...THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE CWFA WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...NEAR RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS. WARMEST TEMPS LIKELY TO BE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE BLKHLS WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN THE
WARMING FOR THAT AREA. MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AS UPPER TROF WORKS THROUGH THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE VERY MILD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS WARM AS TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN WY BY AFTN AS 120KT JET STREAK
OVER THE GREAT BASIN NOSES INTO WRN/CNTRL WY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN OVER OUR WRN ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROF WORKS INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH SFC LOW
TRACKING FROM SERN WY INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. IMPRESSIVE BAND OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL SHIFT SWD ACRS THE CWFA BRINGING WDSPRD
RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. A
FEW INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE MOST AREAS AND AN ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MODELS STILL OFF A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH STILL AGREE THAT SNOW WILL REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY...SO HAVE PUSHED UP POPS DURING THAT
PERIOD. QUESTION IS HOW FAST THIS WILL PUSH THROUGH AND IF ANYTHING
WILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH COOLER AIRMASS
PUSHING IN. UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT WAVE DIVES THRU NWRLY
FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13