Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 242036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
136 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

A MODERATE TO HEAVY BAND OF SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE NRN-ERN
SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS AND ADJACENT AREAS EARLY THIS AFTN. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AS A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY THIS EVNG AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. HOWEVER...
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVNG.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
WILL ENSUE AS THE NEXT...STRONGER...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND ALSO SWITCH THE BLYR WINDS TO SOUTHWEST.
THIS WARMER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SHUT OFF THE UPSLOPE SNOWS.

ON TUESDAY...THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO WRN SD DURING THE
DAY...SPREADING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN
THE WARMING PROFILES THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...WITH AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ACROSS THE
NRN BLKHLS AGAIN AS FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS RESUME. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER NWRN SD DURING THE DAY AND MAY LEAD TO
SOME REDUCED VSBYS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS.

ON TUESDAY NGT...THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST WITH SNOW DIMINISHING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT LINGERING ACROSS NERN WY WHERE MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE ERN
CONUS. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...
CONCENTRATED ALONG A DRIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM
CNTRL MT TO ERN WY AND FAR WRN SD. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
TO BE LITTLE...AN INCH OR LESS OVER MOST LOCATIONS. GFS/ECMWF
STILL AGREEING ON A WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION FOR THANKSGIVING INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. RAISED TEMPS FOR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM NEAR 30 OVER NW SD TO MID 40S OVER PORTIONS OF NE WY/SW
SD...ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE POSITION
OF THE WARM FRONT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE CWA SATURDAY WITH LIGHT PRECIP ACCOMPANYING IT.
COOLER TEMPS WILL THEN REMAIN THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...LASTING LONGEST OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
MVFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...AND WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. NOT RECEIVING OBS
FROM GCC SO AN AMENDMENT IS NOT SCHEDULED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE




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