748
FXUS63 KUNR 101944
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
144 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cold front will move through the region late tonight with
 cooler, breezy, and showery weather Friday

-Dry this weekend with temps warming back up

-Unsettled weather returns next week, with daily shower and
 thunderstorm chances possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This mornings band of thunderstorm activity has enveloped the
region on a thick cloud canopy which has limited daytime heating
across portions of the Black Hills. Maximum temperatures were
adjusted some 3-6 degrees cooler to account of this. Otherwise the
shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease in aerial
coverage and severity as we continue to progress through the
afternoon hours. We are still tracking a cold front to push
through the region this evening and in its wake, will bring cooler
temperatures to the region tomorrow. We will still hold on to low
end (30% POP) chances for tomorrow afternoon. Expect minimal
impacts with any shower and thunderstorms that do develop tomorrow
as there will be limited instability and moisture to contend with.

Forecast over the weekend looks on track and we can expected drier
conditions with warming temperatures throughout the weekend with
temperatures climbing back into the mid to upper 90s for Sunday.

Heading into next week the longwave pattern shifts back toward a
somewhat active pattern as a progged baroclinic zone develops and
stalls out across the upper Northern Plains and we bring back low
level moisture to the region. Embedded in the longwave pattern
is a shortwave an coinciding cold front that could be a catalyst
for more organized thunderstorm develop and it will be something
we need to watch for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected. The exception would be
MVFR conditions in any showers/storms, which will be possible
throughout the TAF period. Low confidence in precipitation at
sites, so no mention in TAFs for now.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Woodward
AVIATION...Dye