Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 081744
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1044 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS STRETCHING FROM NRN SD
THROUGH WRN WY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AT
THE SFC...HIGH CENTER COVERS THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG CONTINUING TO COVER MUCH PARTS OR NERN WY AS WELL AS
MUCH OF THE SD PLAINS.

TODAY...AS SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE CWFA EARLY THIS
MRNG...THE LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE FROM THE WEST WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARM NICELY
INTO THE 50S ACRS THE WRN/CNTRL ZONES AS WESTERLY BL FLOW
DEVELOPS...40S FURTHER EAST ON THE SD PLAINS.

SUNDAY...THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWFA AND BRING VERY
MILD TEMPS TO THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW MOST PLAINS
LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE 60S..WITH WARMEST READINGS EAST/SOUTH
OF THE BLKHLS WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING DUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW READINGS NEAR 70F THIS AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE-DAY
MONDAY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND. THE
GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. NEXT DISTURBANCE
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MAY APPROACH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2014

LOW CIGS AND FOG HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
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