Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 232036

336 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shortwave trough responsible for the isolated light showers
currently over the northern part of the CWA will be pushing east of
the area early this evening.  Will go dry tonight as any remaining
rain shouldn`t be more than just sprinkles.  The models show that
there will be enough low level moisture for low clouds and some fog
to develop over central and northeast Missouri as well as west
central Illinois after midnight that will last past sunrise Friday
morning.  Have added mention of patchy/areas of fog to account for
this.  Went with lows close to current dewpoints.


.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

(Friday through Sunday )

Still looks like this will be a dry period with above normal
temperatures.  Weak trough will move across Missouri and Illinois
tomorrow, though moisture will be too limited in northwest flow to
provide any rain chances.  Still expect temperatures to climb above
normal as winds turn out of the southwest ahead of cold front that
will move through the area early on Saturday.  Even though the cold
front will move through early in the day, highs should be well into
the 70s on Saturday as 850mb temperatures climb into the mid teens
Celsius under mostly clear skies.  Temperatures should be similar on
Sunday as the surface high moves off the the east with clear skies.

(Monday through next Thursday)

Will keep the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms going
over the area from Monday night into Tuesday as both the GFS and
ECMWF show a trough and an attendant cold front moving across the
region during this time frame.  While there are some minor
differences with depth and speed of the trough, do not think these
will affect timing of this system.  Highs on Monday should be once
again be well above normal ahead the cold front, but then cool down
on Tuesday with passage of the cold front.  Wednesday and Thursday
will see highs closer to normal with cold air advection behind the
front and 5-10C 850mb temperatures.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Rain showers having a real tough time moving east due to dry air
in lower levels. That being said, I can`t rule out a sprinkle or
brief shower at KCOU or KUIN this afternoon. Otherwise, low level
moisture will be on the increase later this evening and overnight
as southerly flow continues. This should lead to some MVFR
conditions in both the ceiling and visibility category overnight.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected until later tonight when MVFR ceiling will
develop and fog may reduce visibility to 5SM. Scattering of cloud
cover is expected on Friday with a continued light southerly wind.





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