Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 050735
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
235 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MVFR VSBYS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. SOME IFR VSBYS BEING REPORTED IN THE STL METRO
AREA AT THIS TIME AS WELL...MIGHT BE SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS. THIS
SMOKE MAY DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

HAZE AND SMOKE FROM FIREWORKS HAS LOWERED VSBY BELOW 3SM AT THIS
TIME. AM UNSURE HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE WILL BE. SMOKE MAY
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT ALLOWING VSBYS TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR
CATEGORY...OR FOG/HAZE MAY THICKEN AS SMOKE DISSIPATES AND VSBYS
MAY CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN WORSEN. AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT EITHER WAY
AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK
AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR LINGERING FOG AND
HAZE. THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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