Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 031941
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
241 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THE EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH KEEPS US FIRMLY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. A STUBBORN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THEY SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARD ST.
LOUIS.  MEANWHILE...CU FIELD NEAR FRONT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE
AGITATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NEAR VICHY/ROLLA.  WILL GO AHEAD
AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TWO AREAS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX AND IS
FURTHER FOCUSED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...BUT FAIRLY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD PRECLUDES ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE STAY ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECWMF AND
GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THAT PESKY FRONT
STILL LINGERING NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO NORTHERN MO TO CENTRAL IL. FRONT IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STL AND UIN WITH WEAK WINDS MAKING IT HARD TO
PICK OUT. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
KANSAS CITY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF MO AND SOUTERN IL BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOMETHING
ANYWERE ALONG THE FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE UIN WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NE TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY WITH A VCTY AT COU, SUS AND CPS. LOOKS LIKE INHIBITION
WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP OVERNIGHT DRY EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS KEEP
SCATTERED STUFF GOING. IF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS STRONG ENOUGH WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ELEVATED STORMS BUT WILL STAY DRY
GIVEN LOW PROBALILITIES. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT WITH THE
FRONT STILL IN THE AREA AND SCATTERED STORMS FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA CANNOT RULE
OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL THROW IN A VCTY WITH A
REPEAT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND LOOKS TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     73  89  71  81 /  40  40  70  80
QUINCY          67  82  67  81 /  30  20  60  60
COLUMBIA        71  88  70  81 /  20  40  70  80
JEFFERSON CITY  72  89  70  82 /  20  40  70  80
SALEM           69  86  69  83 /  20  20  50  70
FARMINGTON      70  90  70  83 /  20  30  60  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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