Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 241143

643 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Will see an gradual increase in rain chances today...particularly
over the western and northern parts of the CWA as the upper ridge
moves off to the east which will allow for southwesterly upper flow
to establish itself over the area.  Large area of rain over central
and western Missouri is being generated in an area of strong low
level moisture convergence under the broad area of upper level
ascent.  This low level moisture convergence will shift eastward
today and is being picked up well by the 00Z NMM WRF.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

(Tonight through Tuesday)

The NAM has been the most consistent of the models as of late.   A
notable shortwave will move across the area tonight which will bring
stronger ascent along with strong low moisture convergence ahead of
it.  Will continue with likely or categorical PoPs over the entire
area.  Then Memorial Day still looks mostly dry as subsidence sets
in behind aforementioned shortwave trough.  Will keep high chance
and likely PoPs on Monday night as the next shortwave trough moves
across the area.  Will also keep likely PoPs on Tuesday as yet
another shortwave moves across the area.

Will stick closer to the NAM MOS guidance for temperatures based on
model preference.

(Wednesday through next Saturday)

Will continue to go with chances of showers and thunderstorms for
most of the extended part of the forecast as a series of shortwaves
moves across the area.  A quasi-stationary front will over the area
which is typical for late May and temperatures will be determined be
what side the front is on.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

Main question for this TAF period will be timing of precip.
Ongoing precip across wrn MO shud slowly dissipate this morning.
However, isod to sct TSRA shud develop across the region late this
morning into the afternoon hours. The main threat for precip will
be late this afternoon thru at least the evening hrs. Precip may
need to be continued beyond going TAFs. Otherwise, winds will
become sely to sly with gusts to at least 25 kts. Winds will
become swly late tonight.

Specifics for KSTL: Strong and gusty sely to sly winds expected
today. Main threat for precip remains late this afternoon thru the
evening hrs. Precip may need to be continued beyond going TAF with
future updates. Winds will become swly late tonight.





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