Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 261732

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection a little closer than the previous two nights with a
broken line of showers and storms stretching from near KIRK to south
of Kansas City this morning. Most of the guidance shows this line
moving east-southeast into the CWA during the predawn hours and
reaching the STL Metro between 12-14Z.  Have chance/sct PoPs given
uncertainty in coverage and will NOWcast up until morning forecast

This activity should steadily sink south into the eastern Ozarks and
southeast Missouri with the remainder of the CWA drying out and
warming up this afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated showers or
storm popping up during the heat of the day, but believe best
chances of convection will be further west as outlooked by SPC.  In
fact, much of the guidance keeps the evening hours dry for the area
with rain chances ramping up after 06z tonight from the west and
southwest. This uptick in PoPs heading into Friday will be in
response to the upper level system that has been parked across the
southwest CONUS finally ejecting into the Plains and large scale
lift overspreading the Midwest.


.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Still appears that the best chances of widespread rainfall will
occur on Friday with likely to categorical PoPs in order. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only in the 70s and lower 80s. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the CWA through Saturday night,
but none look particularly favorable for severe weather.

Appears that there will be a break from the rain on Sunday and
Memorial Day as temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s each
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase again next week, as
southwest flow reestablishes itself across the central CONUS.
Temperatures look to remain warm with highs in the 80s.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Earlier complex of thunderstorms has moved off well to the south
of the terminals. Expectation is for VFR/dry weather through this
afternoon/early evening. Exception could be at KCOU where a
complex of showers/storms will try and near central Missouri by
late afternoon so have a VCTS group in for now. Better chance for
widespread activity affecting the remaining terminals will be late
tonight and on Friday. been alluded to the previous
couple of days...after the first 6 hours in particular is a highly
uncertain forecast.

Specifics for KSTL:

Expect dry/VFR conditions in wake of earlier showers/storms. By
late evening...threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase
across the area with the best chance late for storms early on
Friday morning. been alluded to above...after the
first 6 hours in particular is a highly uncertain forecast as
convective trends this evening/overnight are not clear at the





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