Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 291130
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will slowly slide southeastward into central
Missouri by late afternoon today helping yield sunny skies and light
winds. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
to the low 60s from north to south...or about 5 degrees below normal
for late October. These numbers generally are close to the MAV guidance
which has greatly outperformed the MET over the past couple of weeks
when mostly sunny skies have been observed.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Ridge of high pressure to move off to the east tonight allowing
southerly winds to return to the region. Clouds will be on the
increase ahead of next weather system, but clear skies and light
south winds over southeast MO will allow for some patchy frost to
develop in this area towards daybreak. As for low temps, will be in
the mid to upper 30s.

Next weather system to slide through region on Thursday. Will see an
increase in cloud cover and a chance of some showers, with best
chances to the northeast of the surface low track and lingering over
far eastern portions of forecast area past 00z Friday. So added
slight chance pops in this area through 06z Friday. Temperatures
hard to pin down. For now have highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger shortwave to drop south across Illinois late Thursday
night/Friday, so could see some additional showers develop over far
eastern portions of forecast area. For now kept this area dry, but
will need to keep an eye out. This shortwave will bring in much
colder air to the region and will see steady or slowly falling temps
during the afternoon on Friday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low
50s early in the day.

Majority of forecast area to drop below freezing Friday night with
lows in the mid to upper 20s most locations. Will keep mention in
HWO.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by late Saturday allowing
temperatures to moderate rather quickly. So by Sunday highs will be
in the low to mid 50s.

Beyond that the extended models have the next significant weather
system approaching the region by Sunday night with precipitation
developing and spreading across the entire area by Monday and
persisting through Tuesday. Temperatures to remain just below normal
in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2014

Surface high pressure will come across the area through tonight
bringing mostly clear skies. Winds will be around 10 kts out of
the NW before becoming calm or light/variable tonight.


Specifics for KSTL:

VFR conditions expected over next 30 hours. Mostly clear skies
with NW winds slackening off tonight and becoming light/variable.

Gosselin

&&

.CLIMATE:
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

Halloween Top News of the Day Article on the NWS St. Louis Website
contains Halloween Climate Statistics for St. Louis, Columbia and
Quincy.  (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx)


&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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