Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 080036
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
736 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the St. Louis Metro
as hot and unstable airmass interacts with remnant outflow
boundary stretching from northwest St. Charles County to south St.
Louis City. These storms could produce large hail or locally
damaging winds. The greater threat of severe weather remains with
the expected line of storms later this evening and overnight from
the northwest.

CVKING

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

(Tonight)

Main concern continues to be the potential for severe weather late
tonight...specifically damaging winds.  Not much change from
previous thinking that thunderstorms will initiate late this
afternoon and early this evening over Nebraska and Kansas along a
surface front as a shortwave trough approaches the area from the
northwest.  These storms will increase in intensity and congeal into
an MCS as they move southeast along the front into Missouri during
the late evening and overnight hours. Strong low level moisture
convergence along the front along with forcing with the shortwave
will support the MCS.  Decent values MUCAPE and low level and deep
layer shear values will allow the MCS to stay severe into central
and eastern Missouri and adjacent sections of Illinois into the
overnight hours.  In addition, precipitable water still suggest that
the MCS will produce very heavy rainfall rates.  However given
progressive nature of MCS and high flash flood guidance numbers will
just mention locally heavy rainfall in the HWO at this time.


Britt

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

(Tuesday through Thursday)

On Tuesday, the front will be moving south and out of the CWA about
the time that thunderstorms will be initiating during the early-mid
afternoon hours.  There is still some potential that one or two of
these storms could become severe before they move out of the CWA
during the late afternoon hours.

The front will then move well south of the area Wednesday into
Thursday as the flow becomes northwesterly aloft.  The area will lie
under mainly subsidence during this period, so have kept these two
days dry.  850 mb temperatures will be between 12-18C promising
below normal temperatures.

(Friday through next Monday)

Warm front is still on track to move through the area on Friday and
Saturday causing temperatures to climb back closer to normal.  The
front will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast.  850 mb
temperatures of 18-20C call for temperatures at or just above
normal.  ECMWF sets up northwesterly flow over the area quicker than
the GFS on Saturday and Sunday, so consequently it is trying to
bring a cold front through the CWA faster. This solution is faster
than in previous runs, so went with the slower idea with a cold
front entering the northern part of the CWA on Sunday morning and
move it south across the area through Monday.  Will continue the
chance of thunderstorms into early next week.


Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 703 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

Scattered thunderstorms in the STL Metro area should begin to
diminish over the next hour or two. Further upstream, expect the
line of storms currently over southeast Nebraska/Southwest Iowa to
continue moving southeast. Not sure if the line will become more
organized and accelerate, but it should continue southeast and
affect the entire area. Wind gusts in excess of 40kts will be
possible and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. If the line can
get well organized, there will likely be at least a couple of
hours of light to moderate rain behind the main line of storms.
MVFR conditions are likely in this area. Expect rain to taper off
and end by 12-15Z Tuesday.

Specifics for KSTL:

Scattered thunderstorms in the STL Metro area should begin to
diminish over the next hour or two. Further upstream, expect the
line of storms currently over southeast Nebraska/Southwest Iowa to
continue moving southeast. Not sure if the line will become more
organized and accelerate, but at its current speed the storms may
affect Lambert as early as 06Z. Wind gusts in excess of 40kts will be
possible and IFR flight conditions in heavy rain. If the line can
get well organized, there will likely be at least a couple of
hours of light to moderate rain behind the main line of storms.
MVFR conditions are likely in this area. Expect rain to taper off
and end by 12-15Z Tuesday.

Carney

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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