Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 240928

328 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2015

The region can expect a tranquil warm day today.  Weak upper level
ridge will build in thru the day as a sfc ridge slides NE along the
east coast.  Those features will combine with return flow to produce
a seasonally warm day.  Guidance has been too cool the past couple
days in the wake of the weekend storm.  That is likely the case
again today.  I generally went at or above the warmest guidance
which was approx 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs today are
expected to be 10 degrees above average.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2015

(Tonight through Thanksgiving night)

Not much change from the prev forecast thru this period. Large sfc
ridge will build ewd allowing sly flow to return with moisture
gradually increasing across the region. Upper low currently just off
the wrn U.S. coast is progd to dig swd along the coast today. Mdls
suggest a leading s/w along with strong swly low level flow will
spread enuf moisture into the region that precip will be possible as
early as tomorrow afternoon...albeit very low chances attm. Precip
chances increase rapidly late tomorrow night into Thurs as a cdfnt
approaches the area.

Current timing may be slightly slow given some of the latest
guidance. However, the system shud be well sampled by this time
tomorrow, hopefully allowing for better mdl solns. With some
uncertainty, have kept changes to a minimum for now.

Not many changes to temps thru this period either other than to
trend warmer, mainly for min temps with ample cloud cover expected.

(Friday through Monday)

Main focus is temps thru the period. The GEM builds a very strong
sfc ridge into the area behind the fnt this weekend. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF/GFS are in fairly good agreement with the fnt stalling S of
the CWA, then a sfc low moving the fnt nwd again some time late this
weekend into early next week. While the track of the sfc low
differs, the idea is the same. Due to the strength of the ridge, the
GEM soln is some 10 to 15 degrees colder than the GFS. Since this
soln is an outlier, have trended slightly cooler than a ECWMF/GFS

The ECMWF/GFS suggest at least a PoP of some value is needed thru
the end of the extd period with the sfc fnt in the general area and
the upper low anchored to the West. The track of the sfc low,
mentioned above, will determine PoPs for early next week. Given
differences among guidance, will keep PoPs going for now.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Nov 23 2015

VFR condition. Surface high pressure slides east through the
period. Southeast wind develops Tuesday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR with southeast wind.



Saint Louis     64  41  60  52 /   0   5  10  20
Quincy          58  39  56  50 /   0   5  20  40
Columbia        63  41  59  52 /   0   5  20  40
Jefferson City  63  41  60  53 /   0   5  20  30
Salem           59  39  59  49 /   0   0   5  10
Farmington      61  39  58  50 /   0   5  10  20




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