Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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639
FXUS63 KLSX 241932
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
232 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

The area continues to be covered under the western periphery of a
high pressure system centered over the Ohio Valley. The high
pressure is expected to move into the northeast US tonight.  The dry
weather conditions will persist over most of the region through
Monday afternoon. A number of CAMS are showing isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the Ozarks through sunset. This is reasonable
given the trend with the CU field and the observation of isolated
showers and storms in the Missouri bootheel.

The long wave trough will move closer to the region on Monday
with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon
in central Missouri. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal with 850 mb temperatures ranging from 16-18C over the
region on Monday.

Kelly

.LONG TERM...  (Monday Night through Next Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

A very amplified upper air pattern will become more progressive
during the extended period of the forecast. The deep trough across
the western CONUS will eject a piece of energy northeast across the
Plains and into the upper Midwest on Tuesday which will help to
deamplify the pattern across the Midwest and send a cold front south
across the CWA on Wednesday. Still not very excited about rain
chances given the lack of upper level support and weak low level
moisture convergence. Maintained the slight chance/chance PoPs.

Temperatures will cool behind this first front but a second trough
diving southeast from Canada across the Great Lakes by the end of
the work week should really bring a taste of fall to the Midwest
next weekend.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

High pressure over the region will persist through Monday
afternoon. Scattered clouds with VFR bases over the area will
give way to clear skies tonight. Scattered showers are possible
mainly south of the terminals over the Ozarks. A brief period of
fog is possible at KSUS Monday morning, but confidence is too low
to put into TAF at this time.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
High pressure over the region will persist through Monday
afternoon. Scattered clouds with VFR bases over the area this
afternoon and Monday will give way to clear skies tonight.

Kelly

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     71  91  69  92 /   5  10   5   5
Quincy          67  87  66  85 /   5  20   5  20
Columbia        66  87  65  85 /   5  20   5  20
Jefferson City  67  88  66  87 /   5  20   5  20
Salem           65  90  65  93 /   0  10   5   5
Farmington      65  87  64  91 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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