Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 300851
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
351 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Focus continues to be temps with one more dry day expected.

Cdfnt shows up well on regional RADAR and currently pushing into nrn
MO and central IL. Mdls are in fairly good agreement with this fnt
slowly sinking swd today, eventually reaching along a line from IRK
to near STL to SLO before stalling. Have made only minor changes to
the prev forecast, trending twd persistence along and S of the fnt.
Area of ST across ern IA and nrn IL continuing to move swd presents
a forecast problem for today. The RAP/HRRR seem to have the best
handle on these clouds currently. However, even these mdls suggest
these clouds will dissipate by Noon today. Therefore, N of the fnt,
have trended near the warmer guidance.

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Focus quickly turns to precip chances thru the end of the work
week.

Mdls are in very good agreement regarding mass fields thru the
week. Not much change from the prev forecast as there is not much
change to latest mdls from what the day shift had to work with.
It appears the NAM and local WRF have caught up with the other mdl
guidance regarding cdfnt timing later this week. However, the
GFS/ECMWF/GEM have slowed timing of fropa compared to prev cycles.

Have therefore raised temps slightly for sern portions of the CWA
on Thurs. Have also raised PoPs for Thurs night to account for the
slower fropa timing.

Otherwise, much cooler temps advecting into the region for the
weekend and into next week behind the fnt.

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak cold front to continue sliding south towards forecast area
early this morning. Some low stratus has developed behind this
boundary. Short range models want to bring stratus into KUIN
towards daybreak, then slowly break it up. For now will just add
scattered/broken mention to KUIN by 11z Tuesday, then scatter out by
16z Tuesday. As for rest of taf sites, just light and variable winds
becoming easterly as boundary slides through.

Specifics for KSTL:
Weak cold front to continue sliding south towards forecast area
early this morning. Some low stratus has developed behind this
boundary. Short range models want to bring stratus near metro area
then break it up. For now will leave out mention. Just have light
and variable winds becoming easterly as boundary slides through by
midday today.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     86  63  85  68 /   0   0  10  60
Quincy          76  59  81  65 /   5  10  30  80
Columbia        84  62  84  66 /   5  10  40  70
Jefferson City  85  61  84  66 /   5  10  30  60
Salem           83  55  83  64 /   0   0   5  40
Farmington      84  56  84  65 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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