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000
FXUS63 KLSX 062356
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
556 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

Mid-upper level ridge is building across the area at this time and
should control our weather overnight.  This will bring us a mostly
clear sky and tranquil weather.  Light wind at the surface will
allow for good radiational cooling, especially across the eastern
Ozarks where the surface ridge axis will lie.  Expect lows to be a
bit warmer across most of the area tonight except across southeast
Missouri where temps should be about the same.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 350 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

Friday should be the warmest day we`ve had in a couple of weeks as
the next trof in line dips into the Great Plains.  Warm advection
ramps up over the area ahead of the trof and the 850mb thermal ridge
extends from southwest Missouri up through west central Illinois.
As a result, went with highs near or just above warmest guidance for
highs Friday.  The shortwave dips down into the southern Plains and
drives a cold front through the area Saturday.  Still a chance for
some light rain late Friday night and Saturday.  Latest data
indicate that the atmosphere won`t be cold enough to support frozen
precip, however temperatures in Northeast Missouri may be cold
enough for some freezing rain early Saturday morning.  Best dynamic
and thermodynamic lift will be across southwest Missouri Saturday,
so have kept only chance pops going for now, but may need to
increase to likely if the setup continues to look similar.  The cold
front moves through the entire area by 12Z Sunday morning, and it
looks like dry air should kill any lingering precip before the
atmosphere gets cold enough for snow.

Expect cooler and tranquil weather for Sunday with temperatures near
or just below normal, but the weather is still expected to warm up
for the first part of next week.  Warm advection Monday should push
highs up into the low to mid 60s across the entire area.  Another
cold front will dip into the area Tuesday.  Current indications are
that the northern 1/3 of the area will dip back into the 50s as the
front moves south, but the remainder of the area looks to be in the
60s again.  Most of the precip associated with this system should be
liquid, but there may be some light snow or flurries on the cold
side of the front Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Wednesday and
Thursday look cool...tho not exceedingly cold with temperatures
falling back into the 40s.

Carney

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites thru the valid
period. Like last night, will probably see a period of MVFR VSBYs
for STL Metro sites but a bit earlier, given the better
radiational cooling expected with mostly clear skies and light
winds. Did not at COU and UIN with southerly winds to kick in
earlier. Low clouds and light pcpn are expected to close in on
UIN and COU late Friday night and thus beyond the valid period.

Specifics for KSTL: VFR thru the period. Brief periods of MVFR
VSBYs probable again late tonight, with southerly winds to kick in
on Friday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX