Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 012024
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IN AREAS WHERE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 2000 J/KG MOSTLY
UNCAPPED SBCAPE SO A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY...
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS BRIEF AND
UNORGANIZED. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DIURNALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

LAFLIN

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EARLY EACH
AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP HOLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. SCATTERED CUMULUS WITH BASES
AROUND 5 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND COULD EVEN SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
CLOUD COVER AND ANY POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
01Z-02Z...LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP SOUTH OF KSTL AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY
IN CASE THESE ENCROACH ON THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...BUT FOR NOW
THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF. WINDS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 210 AND 230 DEGREES AT SPEEDS AROUND 7 TO 8 KTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...THEN WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE TO SPEEDS AROUND 5
KTS.

LAFLIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     78  93  79  93 /  10   5   5   5
QUINCY          70  91  71  92 /   5   5   5   5
COLUMBIA        70  92  70  92 /  10   5   5   5
JEFFERSON CITY  69  93  70  93 /  10   5   5   5
SALEM           70  91  70  92 /  10  10   5   5
FARMINGTON      69  91  70  91 /  20   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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