Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 112239

539 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Other than some cirrus, sky will remain clear tonight with a
southwest wind and increasing dewpoints helping to keep
temperatures warmer than the previous two nights.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Cold front still expected to move across the area early on Monday
with a wind shift to the northwest. Temperatures should remain
warm on Monday, despite the early wind shift. These warm
temperatures coupled with dropping dewpoints (mixing) should
result in relative humidity values dropping toward critical fire
weather thresholds in the afternoon. Will continue to highlight
the heightened fire weather danger in the HWO.

Dominant northwest flow synoptic weather pattern will keep
temperatures seasonal and send several cold fronts toward the
region this week. Strongest front arrives Thursday night,
accompanied by a slight chance of showers. High temperatures next
Friday and Saturday look to be in the 60s, compared with the 70s
the rest of the week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 508 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Cold front extending from eastern ND s-sw into northwestern KS
will move southeastward through the taf sites late tonight and
Monday morning. This will be a dry frontal passage with only some
high level clouds expected. S-swly surface winds tonight will veer
around to a nwly direction Monday morning after fropa. Surface
winds will be relatively strong and gusty Monday afternoon. Strong
swly low level winds around 1000-2000 feet in height will lead to
LLWS conditions later this evening and overnight.

Specifics for KSTL: Sly surface wind this evening will veer around
to a swly direction late tonight, then to a w-nwly direction
Monday morning after fropa. The surface wind may be relatively
strong and gusty Monday afternoon. LLWS conditions can be expected
late tonight due to strong swly winds around 1000-2000 feet in
height. Just some high level clouds are expected this forecast





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