Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290447
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1147 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.UPDATE:
Issued at 847 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Much of the shower/thunderstorm activity across central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL was gradually weakening
this evening as the atmosphere was becoming more stable. There was
an area of showers and a few storms across south central MO ahead
of a shortwave trough that will likely move into central MO later
this evening. Very little coverage of precipitation is expected
across our forecast area by midnight or shortly after. There may
be some development of showers/storms late tonight or early Friday
morning due to a modest southwesterly low level jet. This activity
would likely be across central or southeast MO. Low temperatures
tonight will be a little warmer than the previous night due to
plenty of mid-high level clouds along with at least weak south-
southeasterly winds.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
early this evening ahead of 500-hPa shortwave trough with the best
coverage of storms across central Missouri. Combination of nocturnal
stabilization and subsidence behind aforementioned shortwave
should lead to weakening/dissipation of storms as well as a
corresponding drop in coverage late evening/early overnight. Late
tonight...sch/chc PoPs for showers/storms return to the area as
LLJ strengthens and veers from the SSW to the WSW late tonight. As
for temperatures...mild conditions are expected due to a partly to
mostly cloudy sky and a light southerly breeze. Expect lows
tonight in the mid to upper 60s areawide.


Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015


(Friday-Saturday Night)

Another shortwave trough will eject out toward the mid-Mississippi Valley
during the day tomorrow...similar to today just a bit further to the
northwest. PoPs will be on the increase especially Friday afternoon
for portions of central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois
as synoptic cold front associated with northern stream energy slowly sags
southeastward into region. Continued likely PoPs for showers and storms
for Friday afternoon. As for chances of severe weather...appears any
widespread strong/severe storms will be difficult due to weak deep-layer
shear values...around 20 knots. However...isolated strong to severe storms
with large hail/damaging winds does look plausible due to moderately
strong instability (1000-2000 J/kg) values.

Cold front will continue its slow southeastward progression on
Friday night and Saturday. Highest probabilities for showers and
thunderstorms continues to hone in on this period. Timing of cold
front looks to clear CWA by mid/late Saturday morning. Like Friday
...deep-layer shear/instability parameters do not look supportive
of any widespread severe weather...but a strong to severe storm is
not out of the question. Behind the front...showers (along with
some possible embedded thunder) look likely as shortwave trough
slows down and upper-level jet streak backbuilds to the southwest
putting CWFA beneath the RER.

Temperatures on Saturday look to be challenging due to frontal
timing and associated precip chances. Leaned cool (highs in the
upepr 60s to low 70s) for areas well behind the front in central and
northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois where clouds are
expected to linger along with strong low-level CAA from the north.
For areas further to the south and east...did not deviate too much
from guidance with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees expected.

Tightened PoP gradient a bit on Saturday night with highest PoPs
remaining across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois in closer
proximity to cold front. Did remove some mention of thunder well
behind the front due to lack of instability. Surface high across
the Great Lakes will begin flexing its muscle with much cooler and
drier weather beginning to filter into from the north and east.
Forecast lows are expected to dip back below seasonal norms with
lows generally in the 50s expected.


(Sunday-Thursday)

A cutoff low is still expected to develop somewhere near the
bootheel of Missouri on Sunday. Confined PoPs to far southeastern
sections of the area which will be closer in distance to this
feature as well as remnant cold frontal boundary. Instability looks
meager at best so just mentioned isolated tunder for the far
southern and eastern counties. Lingering clouds with 850-hPa dipping
to near +10C should yield a chilly day for very late May. Highs only
in the mid to upper 60s are expected on Sunday.

Cutoff low is expected to meander slowly to the south/southwest
heading into the middle of next week. Precipitation chances look low
as region will likely be too far north of aforementioned cutoff low
and too far south of main corridor of cyclones transversing the
upper Midwest. Best chance of showers/storms at the moment appears
to be on Thursday with chance PoPs as GFS suggests a trough axis may
approach the area from the west. All in all...the extended portion
of the forecast Monday through Thursday appears to be mostly dry
with moderating temperatures back above normal by Thursday.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Short wave continue to lift across the area, still kickig up some
showers in central MO. HRRR is high on this with high MOS pops as
well so have put a vcsh for COU and UIN for some of the overnight
hours. Next weaker wave will likely kick off more tsra Friday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: Skeptical about all the precip the HRRR is
producing before the short wave exits east central mo. Have thus
left short term dry. Scattered tsra for Friday afternoon with more
coverage to the north of STL. Next best shot of precipitation will
be late in the period as the cold front begins moving into
northern mo.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     68  84  69  77 /  30  60  60  60
Quincy          65  81  65  70 /  30  60  70  50
Columbia        66  79  65  72 /  30  70  70  50
Jefferson City  66  80  66  73 /  30  70  70  50
Salem           67  84  69  79 /  20  40  40  70
Farmington      65  80  68  78 /  20  50  40  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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