Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 270908

408 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014


One last summer-like day is in store for today before autumn retuns
for the rest of the week. Surface low/attendant cold front will progress
southeastward during the day today. Precipitation chances will only slowly
climb as mid/upper levels are not favorable for development along front.
In fact...region will reside beneath right-exit region of 300-hPa jet
streak. Main story for today will be the temperatures...which will be
more like normal highs for late August and will be near record highs for
the date. For KSTL...a record will likely be broken...please see climo
section for more details. Did not deviate too much from previous forecast
for highs...but did add a degree or two for some locations. Still actually
have some concern highs may not be warm enough as several locations across
central/eastern KS and NW MO hit upper 80s. Appears mid/high level
cloudiness is only possible mitigating factor regarding high temps today.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2014


Chances for showers...and embedded thunderstorms...will increase as we
head into the evening hours as jet dynamics improve substantially and
midlevel trough amplifies. For PoPs tonight...believe best chances
of showers and potentially a few storms will be across southeastern
portions of the area. Have some concerns about far west/northwestern
sections of the forecast area as unfavorable mid/upper levels alluded
to above could hinder development until showers/storms initialize
further downstream.

(Tuesday - Sunday)

Much more typical late October/early November temperatures is in store
for the rest of the work week and through next weekend. Also looks like
a fairly dry/tranquil weather pattern with northwest flow aloft and limited
moisture. Exception could be on Thursday as a clipper-like disturbance
affects the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have sch PoPs for showers on Thursday
to account for this feature which extended-range models do have reasonable
agreement with timing/track of system. Temperatures also will be
problematic during the day on Thursday as clippers are notorious for
being very efficient at warming things up to the south and west of their
respective track. Did not get too detailed at this point but did trend
a bit warmer than CR init across portions of central...east central and
southeast Missouri.

Longwave trough is forecast to amplify across the eastern third of the
country for the Halloween weekend sending a reinforcing shot of cool
air yielding slightly below normal temperatures. Highs Friday/Saturday
are expected to be in the 50s with a slow moderation beginning on
Sunday. Coldest night for most locations appears to be Friday night/
Saturday morning where the first freeze of the fall season may occur.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

Warm front extending from a surface low over southeastern
Nebraska southeast through STL will lift northeastward late tonight.
Sely surface winds in UIN and the St Louis metro area will veer
around to a sly direction. Only some high level clouds expected
late tonight. A strong swly low level jet will lead to LLWS late
tonight and early Monday morning at the taf sites, with models
forecasting winds at 1500-2000 ft in height around 40-45 kts from
a swly direction. A relatively strong and gusty s-swly surface
wind can be expected on Monday as the surface pressure gradient
tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. There will be mid-
high level cloudiness on Monday with scattered light showers
possibly developing in UIN and COU by late Monday afternoon. There
will be a better chance of showers Monday night as well as cloud
ceilings possibly dropping into the MVFR catagory as the cold
front moves southeastward through our area.

Specifics for KSTL: Just some high level clouds late tonight with
a sely surface wind veering around to a sly direction.
There will be some LLWS in STL late tonight/early Monday morning
due to strong swly winds at 1500-2000 ft in height around 40-45
kts. Mid-high level clouds on Monday with a relatively strong and
gusty sly surface wind. Showers will move into STL Monday night as
a cold front moves through the area with a dropping cloud ceiling
as the low levels saturate.



Issued at 355 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

Record highs for 10/27:

STL    85 in 1950
COU    87 in 1927
UIN    84 in 1927


Saint Louis     88  58  66  43 /  10  70  20   0
Quincy          80  52  61  39 /  20  60   5   0
Columbia        83  52  64  40 /  20  60   5   0
Jefferson City  85  53  65  41 /  20  50  10   0
Salem           83  60  67  42 /   0  70  60   0
Farmington      82  58  67  41 /   0  70  50   5




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