Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 192351

651 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridge continues to move off to the east allowing southerly
flow to move back in. So it will be a bit milder tonight with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s. With surface ridge still over far
southern portions of forecast area, plenty of low level moisture and
winds remaining light, could see some patchy fog over the eastern
Ozarks towards daybreak, so added mention.


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

In the meantime, next weather system to move in by Saturday
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading
southeast across region as cold front moves through. Models have
some timing differences, so for now only made minor adjustments to
the grids. Best chances of precipitation will be Saturday afternoon
and evening before tapering off Sunday morning. Exact location of
where activity will initiate hard to pin down as well. Could see
some activity in morning with more stuff firing up by afternoon, as
for where, it will depend on where the cold front is.

On Sunday after system exits, begin to cool back down as next ridge
of high pressure builds in. Cooler and drier weather to persist
through the middle of next week with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s. Then as ridge slides off, temperatures to moderate by the
end of the work week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Some fog is expected to develop along the river valleys again
tonight which will likely bring MVFR or possibly IFR visibilities
to KSUS and KCPS. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected until a
cold front moves south into the area late on Saturday afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms may affect KUIN after 21Z,
with possible MVFR or IFR conditions with it. Surface winds will
veer from southwest to northwest behind it.

Specifics for KSTL: Expect dry and VFR conditions through 00Z. Currently
do not expect fog to develop tonight. After 00Z on Saturday evening,
a cold front will move into the area which will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms, however the chance of the thunderstorms
remains too low at this point to add to the TAF.





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