Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 011919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN INVOF A BOUNDARY
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY CAPPED,
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE PERCOLATING AT LEAST UNTIL THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING.

H85 LLJ ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH MAY AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MO
AND WEST CENTRAL IL, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SH/TS REMNANTS COULD
DROP FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO EXTEND POPS ATTM.

KANOFSKY

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES. I CAN`T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER OR STORM FIRST THING IN THE MORNING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...BUT BETTER
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN SHOULD RESIDE FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE OF THUNDERTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING INTERSTATE 70
BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORIENTATED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE BOOTHEEL BY THE EVENING.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET TO
PROVIDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS CERTAINLY MORE ROBUST
WITH QPF THAN OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME...BUT CAN`T DISCOUNT ITS
SOLUTION GIVEN PATTERN AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS A FRONT WAVERS ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S NEXT SATURDAY.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.

SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.

KANOFSKY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     77  95  79  89 /  10  10  20  10
QUINCY          70  90  69  86 /  50  20  30  10
COLUMBIA        70  93  71  91 /  20  10  20  10
JEFFERSON CITY  69  94  72  93 /  20   5  20  10
SALEM           68  91  72  88 /  10  10  20  10
FARMINGTON      67  91  72  90 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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