Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 110352
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1052 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

Broad surface high over Great Lakes will continue to dominate sensible weather
elements across the CWFA through tonight. Light east/southeast winds with
an increase in mid/high level cloudiness from west to east is expected.
Main change to previous forecast was to lower PoPs a category with only
slight chance PoPs now in the far northwestern counties as best
upper-air forcing well remain well north of area as shortwave
trough crosses the Dakotas and into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley. For temperatures...leaned a bit cooler than previous
forecast due to lower sky cover and persisent light winds near sfc
ridge axis as well as low dewpoints. Yet another pleasant July
night in store with lows in the low to mid 60s areawide.

Gosselin

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

On Friday, winds veer to the south allowing warmer temperatures and
low level moisture to increase.  Could see some isolated activity
fire up in the warm sector but best chances remain north of the
forecast area. Lowered pops from previous forecast with just
slight chance/low end chance pop for portions of central/northeast
MO and west central IL. Highs to warm up into the mid to upper
80s.

Friday night storm complex development possible over Iowa and track
to the east southeast along warm frontal boundary. Best chances of
rain for our area will be over northeast MO and west central IL
through Saturday. Lows Friday night will be milder, in the low 70s.
Hot and humid weather to return the region with highs on Saturday in
the low to mid 90s, and heat indicies approaching 100.

By Saturday night, NAM is a bit faster with speed of cold front than
GFS. Went with a blend of the two. As front begins to slide south
through forecast area chances of showers and thunderstorms to
increase and expand south across rest of forecast area. Activity to
persist through Monday night then dry and cooler conditions expected
Tuesday through Thursday. Highs to drop into the 70s by Tuesday.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2014

VFR flight conditions are still expected to prevail throughout
most of the forecast period. High pressure over the Great Lakes
will gradually shift east overnight and into Friday bringing a
return of southerly winds and better moisture. I can`t rule out a
spot shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon, especially across
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois but the probabilities
are too low to mention. The greatest probability of precipitation
on Friday night look to be across the central Plains into Iowa and
northwest Illinois, although we will have to keep a close eye on
the potential for any late night activity to move southeast and
impact KUIN.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions are still expected to prevail throughout
the forecast period. High pressure over the Great Lakes will
gradually shift east overnight and into Friday bringing a return
of southerly winds and better moisture. I can`t rule out a spot
shower or thunderstorm Friday afternoon, but the probabilities
are too low to mention.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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