Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 070816
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MCV CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS COLUMBIA MISSOURI WITH BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. AS EXPECTED COLD FRONT IS SLOWLING ITS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
WITH IT NOW LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY MISSOURI TO
QUINCY ILLINOIS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO THIS POINT HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEAR TERM RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
THE BAND OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE ST. LOUIS
METRO THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES ARE
TRICKY WITH THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND RAIN. ST. LOUIS IS STILL 80
DEGREES AT 3 AM IN THE MORNING. KEPT THE FORECAST NEARLY UNCHANGED
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE
LOWER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE PRECIP CHANCES.

CDFNT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD TODAY AND PUSH BULK OF PRECIP S OF
THE CWA BY THIS EVE, OR AT LEAST ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
HAVE DELAYED TIMING OF PRECIP LIFTING NWD BACK INTO THE AREA UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL MOVE NWD AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT LIFTS NWD
BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN ON WED AS THE SFC LOW PASSES THRU THE REGION.

WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS FOR NOW, BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED IN AREA AS WELL AS INTO WED NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS, HAVE CONTINUED A COOL TREND FOR WED DUE TO RA EXPECTED
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FROM PREV FORECAST AND
FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE TEMPS MORE.

FOR FRI AND BEYOND, MDLS PROG HEIGHT RISES THRU NEXT WEEKEND AND
HAVE RAISED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED MORE FROM
GOING FORECAST, BUT SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING PLACEMENT OF THE
SFC FNT. MDLS PROG THE FNT REMAINING JUST N OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE W,
AREA COMES UNDER NW FLOW AND SHUD ALLOW THE FNT, AS WELL AS STORMS,
TO DROP SWD INTO THE AREA.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF KUIN AND KCOU AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY
ON TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, CIGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR/IFR WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MID
MORNING ALL LOCATIONS. COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY,
BUT DON`T WANT TO KEEP 12+ HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. CIGS TO LIFT TO
MVFR/VFR TOWARDS END OF FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, SOUTH WINDS
TO VEER TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN TO THE
NORTH AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF KUIN AND KCOU AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE METRO AREA BY
14Z TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, CIGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR/IFR WITH
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF BY MID
MORNING. COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY, BUT DON`T WANT
TO KEEP 12+ HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR/VFR
TOWARDS END OF FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, SOUTH WINDS TO VEER
TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN TO THE NORTH
AS FRONT SETTLES SOUTH.

BYRD

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE
     MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU
     MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY
     MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN
     IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-
     MONROE IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX


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