Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 302249
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
549 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WEAK SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ISOD TO WIDELY SCT TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHAT TSRA DO
DEVELOP SHUD DISSIPATE THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

CLOUDS SHUD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS WELL. WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND A CLEAR SKY...ANTICIPATE FG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TONIGHT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THRU THE NIGHT AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NWD LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FG ACROSS CNTL
MO WHERE MORE BODIES OF WATER EXIST AND SHUD BE NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLY
AND HELP PROMOTE MIXING LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT. WHATEVER FG DOES
DEVELOP...EXPECT IT TO LINGER INTO MON MORNING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS NWD OUT OF THE REGION.

TILLY

.LONG TERM:  (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

KEPT WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
TOMORROW.  IN ADDITION THE GFS/NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING LESS DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEAR AXIS EACH DAY WHICH
LOWERS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  IT WILL BE A WARM PERIOD WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 GIVEN FORECAST DEEP MIXING INTO THE 850-800MB LAYER
AND 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +20C.

(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND PROMISES TO BE A DRY AS THE
MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  SURFACE HIGH WILL
STILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES STAYING AROUND +20C.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

GENERAL WEAK FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVERL LOW/SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FINALLY GIVES WAY TO
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE. WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROF FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST MO WILL DRIFT AROUND AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TRUE FORCING EXPECT THEM TO DIE WITH
SUNSET. COU AND UIN HAD FOG LAST NIGHT, AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE SEE LITTLE REASON WHY THEY WILL NOT FOG UP AGAIN
TONIGHT. SO EXCEPT FOR THE OVERNIGHT FOG, FORECAST WILL STAY VFR
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE POPPED UP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ARE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND WILL STAY THERE.
BARRING ANY LAST MINUTE DEVELPMENT, FORECAST WILL STAY DRY AND
VFR. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR THIS FOREAST GIVEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AFTMOSPHERE.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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