Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 182032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
332 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The cdfnt continues to push SE thru the region this afternoon.
Behind the fnt, cooler and drier air will filter into the area. This
fnt will stall just south of the CWA tonight with a sfc wave
developing along the fnt. There is already some indication of this
development within the sfc fields across far srn OK and nrn TX
region. Mdls show good moisture convergence along and near the 850mb
fnt ahead of the developing sfc low. However, there are differences
in placement of the best forcing as well as timing.

Have kept low PoPs across srn portions of the CWA with a low chance
for precip, but not zero. These chances are expected to spread back
north late tonight, but are expected to be focused across srn
portions of the CWA thru Wed morning.

Mdl guidance suggests this fnt will lift north slightly, back into
srn portions of the CWA as the sfc wave and corresponding upper trof
approaches the area. This will present a conditional threat for
severe storms, mainly during the afternoon hours across far srn
counties. However, TSRA are possible further north and west with
decreasing chances for TS further NW.


.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Stationary front remains draped over southern IL and Mo Wed night
ahead of surface wave. Precip chances are highest Wed night into
Thurs as low level moisture and low to mid level instability remain
favorable and deepening upper level trough pushes a surface wave
along stationary front. Precip will be concentrated along and to the
north of the front. With the passage of the sfc wave and trough
Thurs expect flow to shift to northerly bringing temps down from the
record highs of earlier this week to more seasonable values between
60 and 70 through Sat. Uppper level ridge moving into the plains
begins to bring temps up late weekend into next week. The remainder
of the period remains dry after Thurs.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Front continues to push SE thru the region. Winds will become nwly
behind the fnt, then nly later this evening thru overnight. This
fnt will remain over SE MO into srn IL thru the remainder of the
period. However, showers with some TS are expected to spread nwd,
mainly during the afternoon hours. The best chances are at
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS during the late afternoon hours.





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