Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 111925

225 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Other than some cirrus, sky will remain clear tonight with a
southwest wind and increasing dewpoints helping to keep
temperatures warmer than the previous two nights.


.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Cold front still expected to move across the area early on Monday
with a wind shift to the northwest. Temperatures should remain
warm on Monday, despite the early wind shift. These warm
temperatures coupled with dropping dewpoints (mixing) should
result in relative humidity values dropping toward critical fire
weather thresholds in the afternoon. Will continue to highlight
the heightened fire weather danger in the HWO.

Dominant northwest flow synoptic weather pattern will keep
temperatures seasonal and send several cold fronts toward the
region this week. Strongest front arrives Thursday night,
accompanied by a slight chance of showers. High temperatures next
Friday and Saturday look to be in the 60s, compared with the 70s
the rest of the week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2015

Winds will remain out of the south to southwest until a cold front
moves through the region after 12/10z. BUFKIT profiles show
strong (>40kts) southwest winds aloft after 12/03z and ahead of
the approaching front, therefore LLWS has been introduced for
this set of TAFs. The LLWS threat may be mitigated if the surface
winds overnight end up being stronger than currently forecast.
There is little moisture available therefore no precipitation is
expected with fropa. BUFKIT profiles show that 20-30kt wind gusts
should mix down to the surface tomorrow afternoon behind the






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