Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 260541
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1141 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Precip over the CWA should be winding down over the next few hours
as upper level impulse works its way SE into the Ohio Valley.
Deformation zone that was so well defined this morning over IA and
n IL certainly falling apart as the afternoon progresses, and have
used a combination of regional radar and HRRR for PoP/weather
trends heading into the early evening. It would appear that the NW
edge of the precip (now all snow) will be near a KCOU-KILX line
by 00z, with the precip dropping southeast and exiting
SE sections of the CWA no later than 06z.  Surface obs trends this
afternoon indicate that rain begins mixing with snow @ 36-37 and
is all snow at 34 or colder, and will use this for ptypes for the
rest of the afternoon and into the early evening. Given warm
ground and the light intensity of the precip once it goes to all
snow, accumulations should continue to be very minor.

Other question for tonight is how much clearing will occur as the
storm exits and a narrow ridge of high pressure works into the
region. Over the last few hours have seen a wedge of clearing
wrapping around the surface low from S WI into NE IA. Some of this
clearing may reach our area, but there is also a lot of additional
low cloud to our north that will advect our way as well, so for
now have only gone with partial clearing during the late evening
and overnight hours.

Truett

.LONG TERM:  (Monday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

(Monday-Wednesday)

Overall, going forecast heading into midweek still looks pretty
good, so this package will include generally minor adjustments and
tweaks to these trends.

Fast moving shortwave in northwest flow will zip into the region on
Monday, with WAA in advance of this feature rapidly shutting down
the CAA occuring overnight in the wake of today`s clipper.  12z
synoptic runs are suggesting a fairly strong N-S warm front will be
located near or just west of STL by late Monday afternoon and have
attempted to reflect this in max temp forecast, allowing highs to
rebound into the middle 50s over mid MO while keeping highs in the
30s over our S IL counties. This temp trend also seems to be
supported by the model RH progs which suggest a fairly thick mid
deck sweeping from W to E across the area in the zone of WAA during
the day, with the most clouds over our eastern counties during the
afternoon.  Some 12z guidance is even trying to kick out some
light QPF near and east of the Mississippi River in the zone of
strongest WAA. Have continued dry forecast for now, but will need
to keep an eye on this as there has been some very subtle suggestions
of this for several days.

The cold air advection behind Monday`s shortwave will try to dip
into the area Monday night, but with the longwave trof working into
the east coast during this time the main thrust of this cooler air
will be east of our area.  Model consensus of thermal profiles over
the region support highs in the 40s over most of the CWA by Tuesday
as weak surface ridge drops into the Mississippi Valley.

Warmup still appears to be on schedule for Wednesday, and main
question is how much of the warming will be able to translate to the
surface.  Forecast soundings are suggesting a large inversion, with
low level mixing up to 900-950mb.  Surface/low level winds...while
strong...are going to primarily be southerly rather than the
southwest direction that normally gives us our biggest warmups.
Also some doubt to how much cloud cover there will be, as GFS
suggests some mid clouds working into the area during the afternoon
while NAM suggests lots of sunshine.  Due to the above uncertainty
will keep highs about where they are now...ranging from the mid 40s
in our far eastern counties to near 60 in the far western tip of our
CWA.

(Thursday-Sunday)

Shortwave that works across the region Wednesday night and early
Thursday appears to be the first of several chunks of energy that
will be deepening long wave trof over the eastern U.S. heading into
the weekend, while cutoff low forms over the southwestern U.S.
Medium range solutions are in very broad agreement in developing
this split flow pattern, and in general this should mean temps
trending back towards more wintry levels after the mid-week warmup.
Will continue some slight chance PoPs on Wednesday night/Thursday
for eastern parts of the FA in advance of aforementioned shortwave,
with slight chance PoPs also continuing for parts of the FA on
Saturday and Saturday night as there is agreement in the medium
range models that WAA, a bit of shortwave energy, and a frontal
boundary will be passing through the area at that time.

Guidance is in reasonable agreement with their thermal profiles
through Saturday, but much like yesterday the operational ECMWF
continues to be deepest with the upper trof and much colder than the
GFS by the end of the period (it`s intesting to note that last
nights ECMWF-based MOS had over a 40 degree difference between the
warm and cold members for Sunday`s highs (58 vs 16).  For now, will
lean towards MOS averages for temp trends on Sunday...which will be
in the 30s.  This seems to be a reasonable compromise at this point,
with additional adjustments occurring as specific trends become less
muddled.

Truett
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2015

Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across most of taf sites through
mid morning before scattering out. There is a hole in the mvfr
deck that has made its way into KUIN but should see that fill back
in by 08z Monday. Then next frontal boundary to move through and lower
cigs back down to mvfr for tafs along and east of Mississippi
river, while KCOU to remain vfr. As for winds, to persist from the
north, then back to the southwest to south ahead of next front.
Frontal boundary to move through KCOU by 22z Monday, KUIN by 23z
Monday and metro area by 01z Tuesday. It will be a dry frontal
passage with winds veering to the northwest.

Specifics for KSTL:
Lingering MVFR SC deck to persist across metro area through midday
before lifting and scattering out. Then next frontal boundary to
move through and lower cigs back down to mvfr by 01z Tuesday. As
for winds, to persist from the north, then back to the south ahead
of next front. Frontal passage will be a dry one with winds
veering to the northwest.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




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