Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 280825
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
325 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Weak frontal boundary that moved south through forecast area
yesterday has stalled out just south of region. It will begin to
lift back north through forecast area today, with some scattered
showers and thunderstorms possible mainly during the afternoon
hours. In the meantime, storm complex over central Kansas early
this morning will continue to track to the east, reaching central
MO by midday. At this point, it will be in the weakening stages.
Otherwise, it will be warm and a bit muggy with highs in the low
to mid 80s and dewpts in the 60s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu May 28 2015

By tonight, first in a series of more vigorous shortwaves will begin
to slide through forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will be on
the increase with best chances still expected Friday through
Saturday. As for severe weather potential, it will be with main cold
front Friday afternoon and night, and again on Saturday. It
continues to hinge on how much instability can be attained in the
warm sector ahead of boundary.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side through Friday, with highs
in the 80s. Then colder air to filter in as front moves through. By
Sunday, precipitation to taper off and will see highs only in the
60s.

Beyond that, upper low becomes cut off and lingers over Arkansas
through rest of forecast period. Could see diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms, mainly for southern portions of forecast area,
from Monday through Wednesday, so have slight chance pops during the
daytime hours. Highs to moderate through the period, warming back
into the 80s by Wednesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed May 27 2015

Cold front has pushed southeast of CPS this evening with weak
surface ridging behind it over northeast MO and northern IL.
Light surface wind will become sely on Thursday as the surface
ridge shifts well east of the area and as the front lifts back
northward as a warm front. Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop
late Thursday morning and afternoon. There should be isolated to
scattered showers/storms Thursday afternoon into the evening as
an upper level disturbance approaches with the best coverage
likely in the COU area.

Specifics for KSTL: Diurnal cumulus clouds will develop late
Thursday morning and afternoon. There will likely be isolated
showers/storms Thursday afternoon into the evening, but will
leave the STL taf dry for now. Light surface wind late tonight
will strengthen to around 8 kts by Thursday afternoon from a sely
direction.

GKS
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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