Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 260718
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
218 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convection a little closer than the previous two nights with a
broken line of showers and storms stretching from near KIRK to south
of Kansas City this morning. Most of the guidance shows this line
moving east-southeast into the CWA during the predawn hours and
reaching the STL Metro between 12-14Z.  Have chance/sct PoPs given
uncertainty in coverage and will NOWcast up until morning forecast
issuance.

This activity should steadily sink south into the eastern Ozarks and
southeast Missouri with the remainder of the CWA drying out and
warming up this afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated showers or
storm popping up during the heat of the day, but believe best
chances of convection will be further west as outlooked by SPC.  In
fact, much of the guidance keeps the evening hours dry for the area
with rain chances ramping up after 06z tonight from the west and
southwest. This uptick in PoPs heading into Friday will be in
response to the upper level system that has been parked across the
southwest CONUS finally ejecting into the Plains and large scale
lift overspreading the Midwest.

CVKING

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Still appears that the best chances of widespread rainfall will
occur on Friday with likely to categorical PoPs in order. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures cooler with highs
only in the 70s and lower 80s. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will likely affect the CWA through Saturday night,
but none look particularly favorable for severe weather.

Appears that there will be a break from the rain on Sunday and
Memorial Day as temperatures warm back up into the middle 80s each
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase again next week, as
southwest flow reestablishes itself across the central CONUS.
Temperatures look to remain warm with highs in the 80s.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Showers and thunderstorms could still occur at anytime during the
TAF period in this warm and unstable airmass. Chances are not high
enough to include at any terminals before 12Z except KUIN when
scattered showers and thunderstorms currently enter northwest MO
may affect that terminal. Some MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and
visibilities may occur with the heavier downpours during this
time. Otherwise expect dry and VFR conditions until after 00Z when
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into the area from
the west. Winds will be southerly except when otherwise
influenced by outflow from thunderstorms.

Specifics for KSTL: Mainly dry and VFR conditions are expected
the next 30 hours. There is some potential for thunderstorms
during the period, with the main chance occurring after 12Z on
Thursday. Any thunderstorms would have the potential to bring
MVFR or possible IFR ceilings and visibilities with the heavier
downpours.

Britt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     86  70  80  67 /  50  50  70  60
Quincy          85  67  78  65 /  30  60  70  60
Columbia        86  67  77  64 /  50  60  70  60
Jefferson City  87  68  77  66 /  50  50  70  60
Salem           85  70  81  67 /  40  40  60  50
Farmington      83  68  77  65 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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