Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 220454

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1154 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Ridge of high pressure extends from southwest Texas northeast
through central Missouri and continuing northeast into the upper
Midwest. This ridge will drift southeast tonight and Saturday.
Should be another seasonably chilly night tonight under a clear sky
and light wind.  Good radiational cooling conditions should allow us
to hit lows near or a few degrees below normal.  Chilly conditions
and relatively moist air will likely produce patchy frost across
parts of the eastern Ozarks and southwest Illinois where coolest air
will reside tonight.  Remainder of the area will probably be a bit
warmer due to the passage of the ridge axis and subsequent warmer
return flow from the south.

Wind will turn to the south-southwest across the entire area by mid
morning Saturday so expect temperatures to warm up a bit over
today`s highs.  Coolest temperatures in the mid 60s should be over
the Ozarks and southwest/south central Illinois with highs near 70
over central Missouri.


.LONG TERM...  (Saturday Night through Next Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

For the most part we are expecting rather tranquil weather until
midweek. Weak ridging aloft with slide into the region Sunday night
with low level WAA becoming established. A cold front will then move
into and through the CWA on Sunday and Sunday evening.  Good low
level WAA will persist ahead of the front and any clouds will be
limited to some thin high clouds. This looks to be the warmest day
of the next week or so, with above average high temps well into the
70s. Present indications are the fropa will be dry with a little
available moisture progged. High pressure will then dominate the low
levels on Monday with near average temperatures, with high pressure
retreating and WAA commencing on Tuesday. A progressive upper trof
and attendant cold front will then move into and through the region
from late Tuesday night into Wednesday night accompanied by a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Any cool down with this later cold
front looks brief at this time and limited to Thursday. While there
are some model differences with the mass fields aloft by Friday,
there is general consensus that low level WAA will once again get



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR through the period except at KSUS where steam fog along the
river may move onto the airport grounds overnight. Otherwise,
light winds will become southerly to southwesterly at all
terminals once a surface high pressure center has shifted

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: VFR through the period. Light winds will
become southerly to southwesterly after 12z once a surface high
pressure center has shifted eastward.





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