Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 012029
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS DIMINISHING, SO MOST PLACES TO JUST SEE
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEN
NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO FIREUP, MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MO NEAR
SURFACE LOW THEN TRACK EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EXACT TRACK OF COMPLEX OF STORMS HARD TO PIN DOWN, BUT STILL FEEL
THAT BEST CHANCES OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL BE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MO. COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS PW VALUES REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES, SO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS EXPECTED AND KEPT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING TIL 12Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, LOWS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LOW 60S TO AROUND 70.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ON THURSDAY, FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA AND
REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

THEN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT, NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. SO WILL SEE OFF AND ON CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BYRD
&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PROBLEM IS THAT NO
ONE MODEL AGREES WITH ANOTHER ON TIMING, COVERAGE, OR WHAT PARTS
OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 22Z ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
UNTIL THEN, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2500
FT. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE MID TO LATE
EVENING PRODUCING OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND AT LEAST PARTIALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE
THURSDAY. LOW END MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST EVEN
AFTER THE RAIN ENDS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL MO INTO THE VICINITY OF
THE TERMINAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT
TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IS UNCERTAIN. SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN, BUT AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO TRY TO TIME THAT IN THE TAF. STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT BUT LINGERING LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

CARNEY
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY
     MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-
     JEFFERSON MO-MADISON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
     REYNOLDS MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-
     WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX



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