Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 100425

1125 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 933 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Low clouds are slowing clearing/decreasing southward this evening and
overnight will push more to the southwest as low level winds
veering some from northerly. In the wake of the low clouds a swath
of high clouds will move into the area from the northwest and be
centered across southeast MO and southern IL at daybreak. All in
all the southern portion of the CWA is likely to see predominately
cloudy skies tonight and the warmest temperatures. Will be making
some adjustments to the cloud cover trends and amounts, and lows
in the northern CWA.



.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Deepening shortwave diving southeast across the middle Mississippi
River Valley into the southeast CONUS has provided cloud cover and
some showers in the wake of the cold front that moved across the
region last night. Back edge of stratus expected to steadily march
southeast with surface high pressure building south from the upper
Midwest and Plains. Temperatures will be slow to drop until
clearing occurs and therefore have a gradient with low
temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 40s across the
northwest to lower 50s in the southeast.


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

High pressure will help produce perfect weather on Saturday with
sunny conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 60s to lower
70s. Southwest wind will develop in the wake of the high on Sunday
and temperatures will respond with highs jumping back into the
upper 70s to lower 80s areawide.

Appears the week will see a roller coaster ride of temperatures as
area remains under northwest flow aloft and is dealt a steady diet
of dry cold frontal passages. First cold front arrives late
Sunday night, another late Tuesday night, and another Thursday
afternoon. The airmass behind each of these fronts will be of
Pacific origin so do not expect any significant cool downs, but
rather a return to near normal values. No signal of signficant
precipitation the next seven days.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2015

Surface ridge extending from northern IL southwest through
northern MO to the TX Panhandle will continue to shift
southeastward. The low level cloud cover around 3000-4000 feet in
height will continue to slowly clear out from northwest to
southeast late tonight with increasing subsidence. These clouds
will clear out of the St Louis metro area around 07-09Z late
tonight. There will likely be some radiation fog in COU late
tonight/early Saturday morning, and steam fog in the river valleys
due to cold air over the warmer river water which will impact SUS
and CPS late tonight/early Saturday morning. The light surface
wind will become s-swly in UIN and COU by Saturday afternoon as
the surface ridge shifts southeast of this area.

Specifics for KSTL: The low level cloud ceiling around 3500 feet
in height will clear out around 07-09Z late tonight with the
clearing line slowly advancing from the northwest. The nly
surface wind will continue to diminish and become light late



Saint Louis     50  70  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          45  69  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        46  71  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  46  72  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           50  67  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      47  66  49  76 /   0   0   0   0




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