Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 030814
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
314 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Weak warm advection over central Missouri is producing isolated
showers northwest of Columbia.  Expect this activity to continue
this morning for a few more hours...but should be ending between 12Z
and 15Z as the weak low level jet backs and warm advection shuts
off.  Remainder of the day looks to be a carbon copy of the past
couple with high pressure controlling our weather.  Expect highs in
the 90-95 degree range.  Wouldn`t be surprised to see an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but overall chances are 10
percent or less across the area so have kept the forecast dry for
today.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TODAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
GREATER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THIS TIME. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
BOTH THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER AIR PATTERNS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY WX CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S, OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 70, TRANSIENT CLOUDINESS, AND A
NOTICEABLY HUMID AIR MASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS SHOW THAT THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WHICH MOVES OVER THE PAC NW ON FRIDAY, THEN DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CA/NV BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM`S TRAILING COLD FRONT
EDGES TOWARD THE MO/IA BORDER ON MON NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. MCONV ON THE NOSE OF LLJS
SUPPORTS CHC POPS ON MON/TUE. A NEW SURFACE WAVE THEN DEVELOPS
ALONG THE STALLED BDRY AND RIDES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, SENDING THE CDFNT THROUGH THE CWA ON WED/THU
(ALTHOUGH ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT). PCPN CHCS
FOR WED ARE TIED TO SFC FORCING WITH THE FRONT.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2015

A few high-based spotty showers have developed across north
central MO this evening and are persisting as they drift
southeast. Present indications are they will avoid KUIN and will
hopefully dissipate before moving as far southeast as KCOU. Still
anticipating the potential for a short period of fog/br between
09-13z at all terminals except KSTL, with the possibility of
reducing the visibility to 4-6sm. Otherwise VFR flight conditions
to persist through Thursday with few-scattered diurnal cu from
midday into the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.

Glass

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     94  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5
Quincy          92  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Columbia        92  70  93  70 /  20   5   5   5
Jefferson City  93  70  93  70 /  10   5   5   5
Salem           91  72  92  72 /  10   5   5   5
Farmington      92  69  92  69 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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