Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 260852
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
352 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014

Temperatures will be the primary focus for today after fog...primarily
confined to river valleys...dissipates by mid morning. Sfc observations
over the past couple of hours have shown a slightly more pronounced
southwestward push to the cooler/drier air. Consequently...did trim
back high temps a degree or two for northeastern portions of the forecast
area as retreat of frontal boundary back north may be a bit later
during the day than previously thought. Latest 0000 UTC model guidance
also supports this idea with warm front nearly bisecting the CWFA by late
afternoon. Regardless...still appears to be another unseasonably warm day
across the bi-state region...especially the further south and west you
travel.


Gosselin


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2014


(Tonight - Monday Night)

Unseasonably warm conditions to continue through the day on Monday
as cold front begins to approach the region from the northwest.
Went aoa warmest guidance for temps Monday as 850-hPa thermal ridge
advects through the CWA. High temperatures are expected to be in the
80s areawide...will certainly continue to feel more like summer than autumn.
Precipitation chances will also begin to ramp up along/ahead of
aforementioned cold front with chc PoPs for showers/thunderstorms entering
northeast Missouri by late afternoon.

Precipitation chances to continue to rampen up through Monday night as
potent vort max transverses the mid-Mississippi Valley. Increased PoPs
for most of the area into the likely category as confidence in frontal
timing/associated chances for showers/embedded thunder has increased.
Cold front around 0600 UTC should nearly bisect the CWA whereby 1200 UTC
the front is expected to have passed off just to the southeast.


(Tuesday - Saturday)

Rain chances will decrease rapidly behind fropa as dry/cool advection
commences. Look for temperatures also to return to more normal values
for late October as autumn makes a return to the region. Seasonal
temps day/night should continue through Thursday before a reinforcing
shot of colder air yields below normal temperatures for the end of the
extended period. A potential frost/freeze still looks in the offing
Saturday morning with lows in the l/m 30s. Depending on strength of
the next airmass...temps may even be a bit colder.


Gosselin


&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

A surface ridge centered over MN and IA will drop southeastward
through IL late tonight. Light nely surface winds will veer
around to an ely direction late tonight. With a clear sky and
light surface wind there may be some fog late tonight/early Sunday
morning in COU, SUS and CPS where the surface dew points will be a
little higher. The surface wind will strengthen from a sely
direction on Sunday as the surface ridge shifts east of the area
and a warm front approaches. There will likely be scattered
diurnal cumulus clouds late Sunday morning and afternoon as the
boundary layer moistens ahead of the warm front.

Specifics for KSTL: A clear sky and light surface wind late tonight.
The surface wind will increase to 9-10 kts Sunday afternoon from a
sely direction. There will likely be scattered diurnal cumulus
clouds Sunday afternoon.

GKS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     78  64  87  56 /   5   0   5  70
Quincy          73  63  80  50 /   5   5  30  60
Columbia        83  64  82  52 /   5   5  10  60
Jefferson City  85  63  82  52 /   5   5  10  50
Salem           73  60  83  59 /  10   0   5  60
Farmington      80  61  82  58 /   5   0   5  70

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX






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