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000
FXUS63 KUNR 291736
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1036 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2013

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WARM FRONT FROM EASTERN MT INTO SOUTHEAST
WY. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LEFTOVER ST FROM JUST NORTH OF KSPF TO K20U. SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
CENTRAL AB/SK WILL MOVE SWIFTLY SOUTHEAST TODAY PUSHING WARM FRONT
THROUGH CWA DURING THE DAY...SCOURING REMAINING ST. LOW DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL PUSH A WEAK TROUGH/COOL FRONT INTO
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION/GRADIENT
PRETTY WEAK...SO EXPECT LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...NOTICEABLY WARMER ON THE SD
PLAINS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...WEAK SURFACE HIGH BRINGS QUIET WEATHER.

SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM AB/SK INTO ND BRINGING ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10F ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BEHIND SHORTWAVE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE ST/SC DECK INVADING PARTS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE...WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE NORTH OF CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2013

RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS MAINLY DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES ACROSS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND SHOULD BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE LOW
MIDWEEK...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING THE LOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA WHILE THE LATEST GFS SLIDES IT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.
WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SNOW...WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NOW. THE ARCTIC AIR
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF TIME...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPS
WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI NOV 29 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...15