Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 280058
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY EVENING 1KM VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF SMOKE HEADING
OUR WAY...SO HAVE PUT INTO FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD WEAK TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT INTO
NORTHWEST SD/NORTHEAST WY...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM LOW IN
NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN SD. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST SD...WHICH IS ASSISTING NEW CONVECTION UNDER
IT. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL BUBBLE AND SINK
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 850-300MB MEAN WINDS OF 10-15KTS. NEED TO
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS...COMING SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AREA.
AREA OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL SD WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH INVERTED TROF
THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 70S...WITH SOME 80S WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED. WINDS ARE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD...LINGERING LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO
MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. LINGERING
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE COULD HELP SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE HILLS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROF PUSHING INTO EASTERN WY. A VERY
WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH READINGS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES AS EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SW FLOW TRAVERSE THE
NORTHERN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. GIVEN NARROW T/TD
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND RAIN OVER PAST 24 HOURS...PATCHY FOG AND
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL SD OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED FIRE RISK ON
SATURDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 PERCENT
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...HELGESON
FIRE WEATHER...MLS


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