Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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388
FXUS63 KUNR 301600
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1000 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast
Alberta, with cold front trailing southwest into the Pacific NW. A
surface trough extends southeast from the low into eastern MT and
eastern WY. Upper level analysis shows slow moving low across
western MO, with next trough across the western states. West-
southwest flow ahead of the trough is bringing increasing clouds.
Fog has dissipated across most of the area. Temps are in the upper
30s and 40s with south to southeast winds.

Only a minor update made to remove fog and tweak temps and cloud
cover. Showers will develop and move across northeast WY and
possibly the Black Hills this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Friday Night)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Water vapor shows upper ridge building from the nrn Rockies into
the nrn plains, with next trof along the west coast. At the sfc,
lee trof is advancing into ern MT/ern WY. Low level ely flow
bringing low stratus into scntrl SD early this mrng.

Upper ridge will cross the cwfa today bringing warmer temps to
most areas, although the exception could be over sctnrl SD if low
stratus lingers through the day. SW flow aloft returns by aftn
with upper trof moving quickly through the wrn conus and upper low
closing off over the desert sw. Increasing chances of -shra this
aftn in our wrn zones, and even more so tonight as short wave
energy is ejected newd around the upper low as it shifts to near
the four corners.

Widespread rain expected Friday into Friday evening from nern WY
into far swrn SD as upper low drifts slowly ewd. The storm system
will take a slightly further south track than the system that
brought Tuesday`s rain, with pcpn chances greatly diminished as
you head north and east of the Blkhls. Thermal profiles suggest
mainly rain with some chance for a bit of snow across the higher
elevations in nern WY and the Blkhls.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

System begins to pull out of the region Saturday with drier and
warmer weather by Sunday. Next upper trof then quickly moves
through the wrn conus Monday with both the GFS/ECMWF closing off
an upper low over wrn WY by late Monday afternoon, with the upper
low moving into the cntrl plains by late Tuesday afternoon. The
projected track, which is further north than recent storm
systems, would bring more wdsprd rain to our region, and possibly
even a bit more snow based on suggested thermal profiles.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 451 AM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017

MVFR/IFR cigs and patchy LIFR vsbys expected this morning across
cntrl SD, with areas of MVFR cigs persisting through the period.
VFR conditions expected elsewhere through mid afternoon. Rain will
move into nern WY late this aftn, and into far wrn SD tonight,
with MVFR/IFR conditions developing.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...26
SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson



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