Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 311720
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1120 AM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Cooler air and cloud cover wrapping around the North Dakota low
pressure system is moving into northeastern Wyoming and
northwestern South Dakota and producing isolated to scattered
showers. Have updated the forecast to adjust the current and
forecast pops and cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Upper low is over eastern MT/western ND, with the surface low
over southeastern ND. Main line of thunderstorms is pushing into
MN/IA along the cold front. Radar is also picking up on a few
light showers across the southwestern CWA. Winds are generally
northwesterly around 10 kts, and temps are falling into the 40s.

As lows become stacked over ND today, a tight pressure gradient will
develop, and a secondary cold front will cross the region. Strong
west-northwest winds will develop as weak cold air advection will
help 30-40 kt 850 mph winds mix to the surface. Winds will begin
increasing this morning to 25-35 mph, with gusts near 50 mph,
persisting through early evening. Will issue wind advisory for much
of the western SD plains. Northwestern SD, the Black Hills, and
portions of northeastern WY may see some wraparound showers/storms
today, with dry weather expected for the rest of the CWA. That area
will also remain much cooler today - in the upper 50s - while south
central SD will be near 70. Under clearing skies tonight, winds will
decrease, and lows will be in the upper 30s across northeastern WY
and the 40s across western SD. Some areas of the Black Hills may
reach the freezing mark.

Weak ridging/nearly zonal flow will develop across the western CONUS
behind the low. At the surface, high pressure will settle into the
Northern Plains. Wednesday will be mostly sunny, with highs in the
lower 70s, and some breezy winds over the SD plains. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

A clipper system will bring a small chance of shra/tsra
for thursday aftn/eve...followed by dry and breezy conditions on
Friday. An upper level ridge building over the wrn CONUS will then
bring generally dry conditions through the weekend into early next
week. Temps will be near to above average through much of the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1118 AM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Very gusty west to northwest winds will persist across the area
through this evening, with the strongest winds on the plains
north and east of the Black Hills. Mainly VFR cigs expected
today...with possible MVFR cigs in sct -shra across far northwest
SD and the northern Black Hills.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-
     025-026-031-032-043-072-073.

WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...10
SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...15


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