Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 102335

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
435 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Upper flow has transitioned to a zonal pattern across the western
CONUS...with water vapor imagery showing a strong wave now crossing
western to central MT. Surface analysis shows the frontal boundary
just creeping into the far S/SW portions of the CWA. Surface temps
are varying greatly with temps in the single digits across much of
the western SD plains into the northern/eastern foothills as cold
easterly flow persists. However temps are increasing over northeast
WY with highs in the teens to lower 20s...except 41 at Pine Tree
Junction. Much warmer air made it into the Black Hills with temps in
the 30s to near 40. KUDX radar shows light snow falling across
northwest SD ahead of the approaching wave.

Chances for snow will continue tonight as the wave pushes into the
Dakotas...especially in the evening hours. Snow accumulation will be
generally inch or less...but wouldn`t be surprised if a
few locations over northwest SD received up to two inches within a
localized band. Temps will be not drop much more than todays
highs...or even slowly rise overnight as warmer air to the south
continues to work its way into the area. Drier weather is expected
Sunday on the backside of the departing wave as high pressure builds
in. Temps will be warmer tomorrow but still below seasonal averages.
Highs will be in the teens and 20s. Lows Sunday night will drop back
into the single digits to teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Arctic front will move through the area Monday. Models have been
trending faster, with GFS now bringing front through Monday
morning. Falling temperatures and gusty winds expected behind the
front. May be some light snow/flurries across the northern
portions of the forecast area Monday morning. Temperatures will be
well below average expected through the middle of the week, with
small chances for light snow over southern portions of forecast
area. Still on track for stronger Pacific trof to affect the area
for the end of the week, bringing widespread snow on Friday. This
will be followed by a reinforcing shot of arctic air for the


.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Sunday Evening
Issued At 429 PM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs will continue over wrn and cntrl SD
through the night, and cigs will lower over nern WY as winds
switch to the NW. Light snow will move across the area this
evening with some lower vsbys. Cigs wl improve Sunday.




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