Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250508
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1108 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEASTERN ND TO FAR NORTHWESTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MT. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES REGION... WITH
STRONG UPPER JET AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WINDS
HAVE BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD AS THE FRONT HANGS
OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER MILD WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY
MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING. SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN MOST AREAS...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
OVER THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD TO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WET BULB
ZERO PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7






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