Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 010516
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1116 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Current visible satellite and water vapor analysis reveals a
broad area of clouds associated with a weak shortwave across the
Northern Plains. Radar returns have remained relatively light, and
most ASOS stations in the CWA have been reporting +10kft cloud
bases so believe most of the precipitation is evaporating before
reaching the ground. A few stronger showers might be able to get
some water down to the surface this afternoon, but coverage will
remain isolated.

Isolated showers over western South Dakota should taper down by
sunset. Northern plains will generally be under the influence of a
broad upper level ridge for the short term, and this will result in
mainly dry and quiet conditions tonight and Saturday, with the
exception of the northern hills where an isolated thunderstorm or
two could occur Saturday afternoon. NAM/GFS soundings for Saturday
suggest afternoon forecast highs to mainly be in the upper 70s to
low 80s across much of the forecast area. Saturday night is looking
to be dry and mild.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Southwest flow aloft, ahead of strong upper level system over the
western US, will bring increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially from Sunday night into early next week.
Warm temperatures will persist Sunday and Monday before a cold
front crosses the area Monday Night and Tuesday. Upper level
system will move across the Great Basin and Rockies Monday and
Tuesday, then across the plains midweek. Latest guidance has some
semblance of agreement with the track of the upper low across
northern portions of the CWA, keeping higher precip amounts across
far Northeast Wyoming, Montana, and far Northwest South Dakota.
Gusty northwest winds are likely Wednesday through Thursday on the
back side of the system as well. Drier weather is expected late in
the week with temperatures a bit below average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued At 1115 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms may develop over the higher Black Hills Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKemy
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Helgeson


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