Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 262311
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
511 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TROF MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE 60S OVER NORTHEAST WY TO SOME 80S
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND CONTINUED
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND SHOWERS
WILL GENERALLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MOSTLY LIGHT.
AS THE TROF CROSSES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN ENERGY WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE BETTER LIFT MOSTLY AFFECTING FAR NORTHEAST WY AND
NORTHWEST SD...AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...AND MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
EARLY IN THE WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS DECREASE MONDAY EVENING. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD WILL ALLOW FOR
ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY SUNSET AS MIXING DIMINISHES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AND PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WX AND
TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME TEMPERATURES LOOK
WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN ON THE PLAINS WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW
IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. MVFR CIGS/VSBY WITH THE SHOWERS...WITH LCL IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012-
     013-031-072-073.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...77






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