Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 191126

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
526 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Upper level analysis has broad trof to the east with broad ridge
across the western CONUS. In between, fast northwest flow
continues across the northern Plains. Skies are mostly clear to
partly cloudy across the area. At the surface, cool high pressure
remains across the northern Rockies and northern Plains.
Temperatures at 3am are mainly in the 50s.

Early this week...Western upper ridge will slowly shift over the
area today and Tuesday, resulting in warm and dry weather. A weak
shortwave will cross the northern plains Tuesday night, and the
upper ridge will begin to flatten. Model consensus paints just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area
Tuesday night. Temperatures will be warm, in the 80s both days.

Mid week into late week...Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase towards the end of the week as a couple waves move
through nearly zonal flow. Highs will be in the 80s and 90s on
Wednesday, with a cooldown expected towards the end of the week.

Models begin to diverge late Friday and into the weekend as a
strong upper shortwave crosses southern Canada, dropping a
longwave trof south into the northern CONUS. EC has the trof a bit
sharper, with stronger dynamics and better precip chances for the
area, while the GFS has a broad trof and lesser precip moving
through the area. Model consensus has a decent cool down for the
weekend, with only 20 to 30 percent pops across the area. Will be
watching this system closely to see how it evolves through the


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 525 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.




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