Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 012337
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
537 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT NOW
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST MT TO EASTERN SD...WITH A SURFACE TROF
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN
THE 90S NOW ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S IN THE HILLS. WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL
DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS. NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



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