Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 041759
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1059 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

RADAR/SAT SHOWING LIGHT SHSN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TO
WCNTRL SD PLAINS...AND PERHAPS INTO THE NRN BEAR LODGE FOOTHILLS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL END THROUGH THE
AFTN...SO HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO ADD MENTION OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SE OVER THE REGION TODAY. COLD CONDS THIS MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID TRIM BACK THE WIND CHILL ADV TO JUST NW SD
AS STRONGER WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZE. A FEW FLURRIES MAY BE FOUND
IN THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND ACROSS FAR NW SD THIS MORNING PER
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW HIGHER BASED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES PER STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BL
CONDS WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIP TO MAINLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AT
BEST. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDS AND WARM NW UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE SHIFTS
BACK EAST. PROGRESSIVE NW FLOW WILL SUPPORT A SHORTWAVE ACROSS SK/MB
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING WAA OVER THE FA
TONIGHT THROUGH THUR. REFLECTED WSW FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPS
LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR WEST...MAINLY IN FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE REGIONS. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO SEE
WARM CONDS THUR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S EXPECTED NEARLY ALL PLACES
OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY...THE BLACK
HILLS...AND NORTHWEST SD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...26







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