Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 060843
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
243 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER MT PUSHING COLD FRONT
DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT/WY PUSHING EASTWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET STREAK SUPPORTING
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. MAIN MCS NOW INTO THE
MIDWEST. UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT CONTINUING...SO NOW HAVE POPS FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN AND IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER FEATURES AFFECT THE
CWA. LEFTOVER 500J/KG SBCAPE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BLACK
HILLS MAY SUPPORT -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. SC/SMOKE WILL AFFECT MUCH
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH TOO WARM IF
SC/SMOKE IS THICK ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...QUIET NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SOME FU.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WITH RETURN FLOW OVER NORTHEAST
WY. THETA-E RIDGE/MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WHICH WARRANTS POPS
DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET/850-700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS AN UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES CNTRL CANADA...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS CNTRL
PAC COAST. AS UPPER WAVES CROSS THE PLAINS...STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WED/THU. ECM/GFS NOW IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW PHASING BACK IN VIA THE NRN
ROCKIES...WHICH BRINGS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS...BUT WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE WED/THU...THEN AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN...TEMPS WILL RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 241 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NE WY AND
WESTERN SD THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING AS LINGERING -SHRA CROSS
THE CWA. DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...WITH CONDS TRENDING VFR ALL PLACES
NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13


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