Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 092238
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
437 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN AREA OF WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION.
STRONG MLCIN AND WEAK SUBSIDENCE HAS KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES
IS TRACKING ACROSS THE TOP OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGE.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THETA-E ADVECTION
INCREASES LATER THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SECONDARY AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING/NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS MONTANA. SHORTWAVE CROSSES WESTERN DAKOTAS
THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY...WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION SHIFTING
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH MLCAPE OF
2000-3000J/KG AND DEEP SHEAR...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA....BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 435 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MRNG...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTN PRODUCING SOME IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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