Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 222043
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
243 PM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Upper level analysis has ridging over the central CONUS with
closed low over the Canadian Rockies. Skies are mostly sunny
across the Northern Plains with just a few thin high clouds
passing over the area. At the surface, low pressure is located
across northwest SD with a dry line extending south into the
Nebraska Panhandle. Temperatures at 2pm are in the 90s to around
100 degrees, with breezy west to southwest winds south of the low.

Tonight...Upper ridge axis shifts east as Canadian closed low
shifts into southern Alberta. Surface low shifts east of the area
overnight with light west to southwest boundary layer flow
expected. Skies will be mostly clear with temperatures falling
into the 50s in the west, and closer to 70 in the east.

Tuesday...Upper low will shift into southern Saskatchewan, with
broad trof moving through the northern plains, bringing a cold
front through the region. Northwest winds will become very breezy
across Northeast WY and western SD early Tuesday morning with some
gusts to 45 mph possible. Winds will diminish a bit by early
afternoon but still remain breezy. Conditions will be generally
sunny, dry and stable across much of the area, although some
instability and moisture over far south central SD may allow for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop late in the afternoon.
Highs will range from the 70s across northeastern WY and the Black
Hills to the lower 90s across south central SD.

Tuesday night...Upper low moves into southern Manitoba with broad
trof remaining across the north central CONUS. Dry and cool air
will continue to move into the area as Canadian high pressure
settles into the Northern Rockies. Low temperatures will fall
into the mid 40s to upper 50s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Progressive flow will continue through the period. Upper trough
will bring cooler weather for Wednesday through Friday along with
chances for showers and thunderstorms as a couple of weak
disturbances move through, but moisture return will be paltry and
thus not much in the way of QPF is expected. Latest guidance shows
upper and thermal ridge returning for the weekend into early next
week resulting in another warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued At 219 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty southerly
winds are expected through this evening, especially over far
southern South Dakota. A sharp cold front Tuesday morning will
bring gusty northwest winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 219 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A deeply mixed boundary layer will continue to bring hot
temperatures and very dry relative humidities through this evening
and thus, Red Flag Warning headlines will remain in effect. RH
recovery tonight will be fair to poor as boundary layer stays
partially coupled ahead of a cold front. This cold front will
bring gusty northwest winds Tuesday along with minimum RH`s in
the 20s.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ263-265.

WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-298.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson



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