Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 071032

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
332 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Upper level analysis shows low pressure over southern Hudson Bay,
with large trough covering a good portion of the US. A ridge lies
along the west coast with strong northwest flow remaining over
the Northern Plains. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy with just a
few flurries across parts of the area. Temperatures at 3am are in
the single digits to teens, and winds are light out of the west.

Upper ridge will begin to shift east today as warmer air slowly
returns to the area. Warm advection aloft will produce cloudy
skies and some very light snow at times across much of the area.
With less insolation and more lax lapse rates, mixing will be
inhibited a bit, leading to slightly less windy conditions
compared to the last several days. Wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph
will still be possible across northeast WY and northwest SD.
Highs will be in the 30s today, and lows tonight will only drop
off into the 20s.

Temps will progressively get warmer each day from Friday through
Sunday, with highs over the weekend mostly in the upper 40s and
50s. Breezy to windy conditions can be expected at times,
especially later Friday and Sunday. Dry weather is expected Friday
through Sunday. A backdoor front is progged to clip the area
Sunday night, with more seasonable temps returning for Monday.
There could be some showers with the front, but right now it looks
like a mainly dry passage. At this time, it looks like the front
will shift back east of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with above
average temperatures in the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 1041 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

MVFR CIGS are overspreading far northeastern WY/western SD,
including TAF site RAP, from the north this evening. These should
expand eastward and hold over the next several hours before
gradually lifting to VFR. Some localized MVFR VSBYS are also possible
across western SD/the Black Hills with passing light snow
showers. Farther west over GCC, VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF period. Wind gusts over 30 kt will be possible
across the area tomorrow afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses
the region.




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