Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 262036
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
236 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO CENTRAL NE. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
TERRAIN OF THE BLACK HILLS AND DOWNSTREAM CONVERGENCE AREA NEAR THE
PINE RIDGE. THIS IS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED OVER CENTRAL
BC/SK...WHICH WILL SWIFTLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF -SHRASN TO THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS WHERE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06Z-15Z FRIDAY AND THEN
OVER NORTHWEST SD WHERE BEST FORCING OCCUR ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AS A WARM FRONT WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE...EXCEPT PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THE FAR EAST NEAREST PRECIPITATION THAT FELL
TODAY. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

A VERY WARM START TO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHWEST SD IF
WINDS INCREASE ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL
RESOLVING TIMING ISSUES WITH THE WAVE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS
AREA WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG WITH SNOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL END
THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26



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