Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 190936
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
233 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS TROF AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
SHARP RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...PRES RISES COVER
THE NRN PLAINS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ACRS WRN SD. IR IMAGERY SHOWS
VAST STRATUS SINKING SWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS BY THIS AFTN. WDSPRD STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THE CWFA...EXCEPT A SMALL PORTION OF NERN WY...AND WILL RESULT IN
LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY
DUE TO CONTINUED STRATUS COVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. RETURN FLOW SHOULD KEEP STRATUS IN
PLACE ACRS MUCH OF WRN SD...ESPECIALLY THE ERN SLOPES OF THE BLKHLS.
TEMPS WILL BE WIDE RANGING...WARMEST IN NERN WY AS LEE TROF ADVANCES
EWD...AND COLDEST ON THE SD PLAINS UNDER LOW STRATUS. WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES OR EVEN -FZDZ ON THE
SD PLAINS GIVEN FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT WILL KEEP DRY FCST GOING FOR
NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
30S AND 40S. SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PUSH SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON SUNDAY
AS WELL. UNDER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...THERE ARE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT...CAUSING SOME WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE









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