Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 020235
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN US WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO WY. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. SOME HINTS OF
WEAK WAVES ON WATER VAPOR...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE
STORMS. 00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG CAP WITH DRY LAYER JUST OF
THE SURFACE...SO STORMS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SURFACE BOUNDARY
IS ACROSS WESTERN ND-NORTHWESTERN SD WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...
BRINGING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGE GRADUALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 80S OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEK. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER TROF
LIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. EAST-SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...
WHILE SURGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE TROF. MAY BE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY FROM THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK
RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER TROF TRACKS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 835 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ISOLD TSRA MAY DVLP OVR BLK HLS INTO SOUTH CNTRL SD...
OTHERWISE...SKIES WL BE CLR. NW WNDS WL DCRS THIS EVEN...THEN
INCRS AGAIN SUN.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...55
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...55



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