Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 161126
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
526 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Current surface map shows high pressure across Minnesota, with
remnants of stationary front across western South Dakota. Mostly
clear skies across the forecast area. Strong upper ridge across
the Rockies into the Northern Plains will bring another hot day.
Highs near 100F expected across the plains of western South
Dakota. Old surface front will lift northward today as trof/dry
line. Deep mixing will result in gusty winds and very low humidity
this afternoon. Best chance of convection will be north and west
of the forecast area. A few storms may clip far northeast Wyoming
and northwest South Dakota.

Amplitude of ridge flattens Monday/Tuesday allowing ridge riding
shortwave to clip the forecast area. This will bring better chance
of thunderstorms. Temperatures will be cooler, but still well
above average. Little change for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 523 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly winds
will be breezy for much of the daytime period. Isolated
thunderstorms will develop over far northeastern WY and
northwestern SD late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Critical fire weather conditions expected across the plains of
northeast Wyoming and much of western South Dakota today as a
trof/dry line moves through the area. Highs will be around 100F on
the plains and around 90 in the Black Hills. Minimum relative
humidity will bottom out around 15 percent for much of western
South Dakota and 10 to 15 percent in northeast Wyoming. Deep
mixing will result in gusty south to southwest winds.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     SDZ261-264-266.

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ259-297-298.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...7



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