Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 190821
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
221 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...WITH A
STRONGER SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH EXPECTED INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE
FA...SAVE SCENTRAL SD...WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL SHRA OVER THE
FAR NW FA PER ONGOING LSA WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH. LINGERING SHRA
WILL WANE THIS MORNING OVER THE NW FA...WITH RESIDUAL CLOUD BAND
SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE FA TODAY. WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL SPREAD OVER
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHLY LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES...SAVE FOR
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN
INDUCED SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SHRA OR TS THIS
AFTERNOON. CUT POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BH PER
LINGERING POST FRONT MOISTURE. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY MOST
AREAS...WITH 70S AND 80S FOR HIGHS...WARMEST SCENTRAL SD.
SECONDARY/STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
ND TONIGHT...WITH A WEAK LL REFLECTION SUPPORTING A WEAK POS THETA-E
ADV SURGE OVER NE AND POSSIBLY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN FA THIS
EVENING. HAVE RETAINED A SMALL POP THERE FOR THIS...HOWEVER MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. SECONDARY UPPER
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE FA SAT. LACK OF SIG
MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TRACK. MODERATE CAA/PRESSURE RISE SURGE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING LL MOMENTUM FIELDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS DIURNAL MIXING AND STEEP LL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER SAT AFTERNOON. NEAR
WIND ADV CRITERIA LIKELY ACROSS THE NW SD PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON.
COOLER CONDS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BRIEFLY
SUNDAY...MAKING FOR A MILD AND DRY DAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ABOUT A CUT-OFF LOW MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
RIDGING SETS UP AGAIN. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE





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