Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 030516
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1116 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS LARGE RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA. PVA AND STEEP LL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING AND SHOULD SEE CLEARING
SKIES BEHIND IT.

WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER OUR CWA AND
KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY...SO SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP WEATHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN ON FRIDAY AS ENERGY FROM LARGE
DESERT SW LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD...PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCKEMY
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...JC


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