Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 300845
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK TROF/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA FLATTENING THE AMPLITUDE OF RIDGE. FOR
TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG TROF OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUFFICIENT SHEAR
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. SOUTHERN ALBERTA SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEXT
SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA AS WEAK UPPER ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE REGION. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES IN THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HILLS BOTH DAYS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CANADIAN UPPER LOW
FLATTENING THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...BUT UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN IN THE TIMING OF THE COOL FRONT AND ANY PRECIPITATION...AND SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...POJORLIE



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