Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 171646
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
946 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Current surface map shows warm front moving into eastern
Montana/eastern Wyoming. Warm temperatures also found across the
Black Hills. Warm front continues to move east today, allowing
temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s for much of
the forecast area. Upper ridge shifts across the area Thursday,
with ridge shifting east of the area Friday as upper trof moves
into the western CONUS. Highs 10-20F above average for much of the
area.

Upper trof crosses the Rockies late Saturday and into the plains
Sunday. Decent agreement with GFS/ECMWF/GEM with Saturday/Saturday
night in developing area of snow across northeast Wyoming into
western South Dakota. Enhanced lift provided by right entrance
region of jet located from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes.
Ensemble guidance still shows wide range in qpf/snowfall as there
is some NW-SE differences in location of best lift. As upper trof
moves into the plains Sunday, upper low closes off over the
central plains. Precipitation shifts south and east of the
forecast area Sunday night as upper low tracks eastward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)
Issued At 944 AM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...Pojorlie



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