Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 240848

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
248 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Upper ridging over the central CONUS will continue today and
Tuesday as the overall pattern stalls. Surface high pressure
across the ern Dakotas into the upper Midwest will strengthen
today with an increasing pressure gradient across the CWA.
South/southeasterly winds will increase this morning across wrn SD
while SW winds develop across ne WY. Extensive mid to high clouds
will stream into the region through the day with skies becoming
mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the upper 50s across nw SD to low
70s across ne WY/sw SD. Upper flow will becoming southwesterly
tonight into Tuesday as the ridge axis pushes east of the area.
Models showing a weak shortwave crossing sw WY into the Neb
panhandle and scntrl SD Tue morning which will bring more clouds
to the area...but at this time no precip is expected given weak
forcing/instability. Highs will reach the mid 60s to mid 70s

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The upper ridge will persist over the western two-thirds of the
CONUS through most of the the extended forecast period with dry
weather and slightly warmer than average temperatures. An upper
trough will temporarily flatten the upper ridge as it crosses the
Canadian prairie provinces and edges into the northern plains on
Thursday night and Friday. Strong waa will develop ahead of the
trough which will make Thursday the warmest day of the week with
highs expected to be around 10 degrees warmer than the average for
this time of year. The best forcing and moisture will remain north
of the forecast area, so will continue the dry weather through the
weekend. There may be a chance of rain on Monday as a shortwave
trough ejects northward toward the forecast area on fast
southwesterly flow aloft as the upper ridge shifts off to the east
of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued At 247 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 2016

LCL IFR conditions in low stratus and fog are possible over parts
of central and northwestern South Dakota from 10Z-15Z this
morning, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.




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