Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 181746
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1046 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MT...AND WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. LOW CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THE FOG AROUND THE HILLS SEEMS
TO BE RETREATING A BIT. WILL LEAVE AREAS OF FOG AROUND THE HILLS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN CASE IT FILLS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY
FOG FOR THE SD PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER
NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S.

FOG/LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PUSHED EASTWARD TODAY AS WESTERLY BL WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN TO THE SEASONABLE 30S...WITH SOME 40S ON
THE DOWNSLOPING EASTERN FOOTHILLS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS.

AN UPPER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK FAIRLY DRY...AND SO EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WAVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 208 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE LARGER
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DOWNSTREAM TROF DIGGING
AND CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIAL
DIGGING SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR THE BLACK HILLS...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE. LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...SIGNIFICANT DIGGING TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER SOME IN
STRENGTH/TRACK AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...BUT BOTH OFFER UP
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KRAP AND KGCC EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STRATUS/FOG HAS LIFTED THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE STRATUS/FOG TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE KRAP OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...MASEK




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