Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 062040
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
140 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR WRN CONUS WITH
RELATIVELY DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...BREEZY
W/NW WINDS COVER THE CWFA ALONG WITH MILD TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S
MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT...SIMILAR TEMPS/WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. A WEAK
CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SATURDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW -SHRASN TO
NWRN SD BUT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONG TERM PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY AND WARM DUE TO A UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA. WEDNESDAY IS
LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS 850MB TEMPS
APPROACH 15 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH WSW FLOW.

GFS/ECMWF ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 131 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MCKEMY
AVIATION...13





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