Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 262058

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
258 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Monday Night)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Zonal flow has developed across the area behind the departing upper
low now moving eastward north of the Great Lakes. Surface high
pressure has now shifted SE into IA/MO. obs are showing relatively
light winds across the CWA with the exception of NW SD where
breezier northwest winds continue. Light smoke continues to
affect the northern Black Hills area into the Bear Lodge Mountains
associated with wildfires...and smoke will continue through these
area tonight. Models continue to show tstm activity potentially
clip SCntl SD this evening/overnight. Good instability over
Nebraska may brush across the SD border...but the bulk of activity
will stay south of the area. Surface high will develop across ND
Monday with generally dry weather continuing. Better moisture
moving in from the south will push the isolated chances of storms
Mon afternoon/evening into SW SD and the Black Hills area. However
little upper level support will be present. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Rockies high pressure ridge will remain southwest of the region,
with the northern plains on the northern periphery and fast flow
aloft. Mean ne pac upper trough will remain in place, ejecting
weak disturbances into westerly flow. This will support periodic
disturbances into the area as general easterly upslope flow
remains in place in the low levels. Certainly not expecting any
widespread precip in the coming week, although isold areas could
see appreciable rains if under the right thunderstorm.

Most pronounced impulse will arrive Tue. Ll se flow ahead of this
system will advect sufficient moisture into the region under fast
flow aloft to support strong to severe ts potentials by
afternoon/evening with cape and 0-6km shear progs at 1.5-2 kJ/kg and
50 knots respectively. Cape/moisture axis will be located over the
Black Hills and SE, with convection initiating over the BH and
shifting SE, possibly organizing into a severe MCS given pos theta-e
adv/ll flow regime and mean h85-h3 flow, a scenario hinted at by the
NAM and GFS. Have added a severe mention to the grids for this.
Unsettled conds will remain through the end of the week, with near
daily chances for shra /ts, best over the Black Hills given terrain

Overall, limited pops to chance or less most areas, with likely`s
retained from the Black Hills SE Tues. As for temps, seasonal conds
forecast, with generally 80s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 256 PM MDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Areas of smoke from fires over Bear Lodge mountains and northern
Black Hills will bring local MVFR/IFR visibility to the Black
Hills area. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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