Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 032122
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
222 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD 1028MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER MT NOSING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WATER VAPOUR HAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT INTO WY...WHICH IS ASSISTING LAST VESTIGES OF STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SOME -SN OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST SD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SOME LEE SIDE TERRAIN CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS.
THIS -SN WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN -SN ENDING AND BLOWING
SNOW WANING...WILL CANCEL REMAINDER OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH MOVES OVER CWA WITH WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN A FEW BREEZY SPOTS
OVERNIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. COMBINATION OF LOW TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
WILL BRING -25F TO -30F WIND CHILLS TO NORTHEAST WY/NORTHWEST/WEST
CENTRAL SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
BACK SIDE OF HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

WARMER AIR WILL BUILD QUICKLY INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH MOVES WELL EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S. MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST INTO THE ROCKIES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME 60S ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE RIDGE DOES PROGRESS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND FAR
SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR SOUTHWEST SD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-024-025-028-029-072-073.

WY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ054>058-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HELGESON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26




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