Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 260506
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1106 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Current surface map shows trof across eastern Montana into eastern
Wyoming. Narrow axis of instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500J/KG
from the Black hills into western Nebraska. Isolated thunderstorms
overthe Black Hills. Isolated-scattered thunderstorms will
continue through this evening from Black Hills into southwest
South Dakota. Activity will then shift north and east with low
level jet and best theta-e advection.

On Tuesday, some convection may linger in the morning across
northwest South Dakota into central South Dakota. Shortwave
crosses the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. Sufficient
instability/shear for severe thunderstorms from Black Hills into
southwest/south central South Dakota. Locally heavy rain also
possible with high precipitable water and slow storm motion.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

West to northwest upper level flow will keep
temperatures near seasonal averages through the end of the week.
Several weak disturbances will cross the area, with a daily chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Then an upper ridge moves over the
region, with warmer and drier weather expected for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1103 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight and Tuesday morning
with local MFVR vsbys. Otherwise VFR conditions will continue
through Tuesday morning. More widespread thunderstorm activity is
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially over the Black
Hills and western SD. IFR conditions possible in heavier storms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Johnson



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