Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

FXUS63 KUNR 241127

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
525 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Deep cyclonic flow sits across the western half of the CONUS while
strong upper ridging has built into the western half. N/NW flow
aloft remains across the northern Plains. At the surface...high the
region sits between the Great Lakes low and the central/northern
Rockies high with breezy northwest winds continuing over the CWA. A
quiet day is expected today with slightly warmer temps than
yesterday. NW winds will be at 15-25 mph. Warm air advection will
push in from the west tonight into Wednesday with much warmer temps
expected. Highs will be in the 70s...possibly just reaching into the
low 80s. Breezy westerly winds are expected across northeast Wyoming
and far western South Dakota. A strong wave will cross western
Canada into the northern Plains late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Surface low will push through ND with a strong cold front crossing
the CWA Wednesday evening. Behind the front...strong cold air
advection will bring very windy conditions to the area through
Thursday. Models so far continue to show good low level mixing and
50kt winds just a few thousand feet above the surface. If this trend
continues...a High Wind Watch may be needed. Will let the dayshift
take another look. Much colder air will push into the area with
highs Thursday in the 30s/40s...and lows Thursday night in the teens
to low 20s. There could be some rain/snow showers with the frontal
passage Wednesday night, but QPF will be light. Lingering showers
are possible Thursday...most likely across the northern Black Hills
in an upslope event with an inch or two of accumulation possible.
Drier weather is expected to end the week and through the weekend
with gradually warming temps. Cooler and more active will be
possible toward early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 521 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the period.


Issued at 527 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Wednesday will be very warm and dry, with highs in the 70s and
minimum RH 10-20%. Still looks like some areas could see frequent
wind gusts of 25+ mph, so will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the afternoon and early evening. across NE WY and much of
western SD.


SD...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ260>263.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ259-297>299.



AVIATION...Helgeson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.