Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 310509
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1109 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES WITH DRY
NW FLOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. STRONG TROF NOTED JUST OFFSHORE THE
PAC NW. AT THE SFC...TROF IS LOCATED OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY WHILE UPPER TROF WORKING THROUGH THE PAC NW. SFC
TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO ERN MT/ERN WY BY THE END OF
THE DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER THE CWFA...AND
80S ON THE SD PLAINS. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO CREATE VERY DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE TO LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ENTER OUR WRN ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE PRES RISES UP TO 8MB/3HR CREATING SOME
VERY GUSTY NW WINDS BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED...WITH
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH IT...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
CWA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL SD PLAINS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS IT SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP
LOW POP CHANCES ACROSS THESE AREAS. ANOTHER WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTY
SW WINDS ON THE WY PLAINS TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH DAKOTA FIRE ZONES
261-264-265-266 UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT. EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS.

WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF
10 TO 15 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHEAST WYOMING BY LATE MORNING...WITH LESS WIND
POTENTIAL EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...SOME
GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR MORE CERTAINLY LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER WESTERN SD AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE.

WILL GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WY FIRE ZONES 259-297-298-299. WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE WIND FURTHER EAST...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE REST OF OUR FIRE ZONES...SD ZONES 260-266. GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR SDZ260>266.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY FOR WYZ259-
     297>299.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...26





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