929
FXUS64 KMAF 131834
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
134 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

- Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the
  higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). Rain chances
  Monday look similar to those of today. Localized flash flooding
  remains possible.

- Gradual warming and drying trend after Monday, but with
  persistent rain chances southwest and west of Permian Basin and
  temperatures remaining seasonable into end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

What a difference 24 hours makes. WV imagery this afternoon shows
an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a
stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. KMAF 12Z RAOB came in
with a PWAT of only 1.13"...under the daily mean of 1.18",
suggesting a drying trend, at least temporarily, for West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico. That said, the only convection
anticipated today and tonight will be confined to the mountains as
easterly winds flow upslope. CAMs also develop isolated
convection into the Southeast New Mexico Plains this evening. The
LLJ is forecast to remain rather tepid this evening, allowing more
efficient radiational cooling and overnight minimums to cool to
within a degree or so of normal.

Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses
will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico,
beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. Even so, highs
Monday afternoon should come in a piteous 3-4 F below normal.
Upslope flow will again promote orographic convective activity
during the afternoon/evening, mainly invof the Davis Mountains.

Monday night, this convection will taper off during the evening.
The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures
should remain near tonight`s, if not a skosh warmer as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warming and drying trend begins Tuesday as ridging builds west
from southeastern US and surface lee troughing develops over
eastern NM into W TX. These features suppress lift over eastern
and central parts of the area, decreasing rain chances for Permian
Basin to low by Tuesday, and to moderate southwest of Permian
Basin during Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon through evening. Rain
probabilities also decrease to moderate each afternoon and
evening into end of the week across SE NM plains, Upper Trans
Pecos, Davis Mountains, and Presidio Valley. Highs climbs from
Monday, reaching mid 80s in higher elevations, lower to mid 90s,
and mid 90s to triple digits along Rio Grande into Terrell County,
increasing by a few degrees each day. Humid southeast winds keep
dew point temperatures in mid to upper 60s, mid to lower 60s F for
western higher terrain. These dew point temperatures and
overnight cloud cover limit radiational cooling, with lows each
night remaining in mid 60s to mid 70s F. Shear stays below 30
knots, limiting organized storm updrafts and longevity. Therefore,
main impacts from storms are heavy rain/flash flooding, gusty
winds, and small hail. Compared to previous forecasts, forecast
rainfall has decreased to mean amounts of a few tenths of an inch
up to 0.50" and low probabilities of amounts above that, with
PWATs while still above average, decreasing more rapidly than
previously forecast into end of the week/next weekend. By next
weekend, highs reach the lower to mid 90s, mid to upper 80s higher
elevations, and upper 90s into triple digits along Rio Grande
into Terrell County, while lows warm into mid 70s F, mid to upper
60s F northern Lea County and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans
Pecos. However, dew point temperatures decrease with more
southerly winds starting Friday, so less humid weather is forecast
by next weekend even with return of warmer than average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Aside from an hour or two of MVFR cigs this afternoon, VFR
conditions should prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Although forecast soundings develop widespread cu fields this
afternoon and Monday, convective chances are too low for a
mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  92  71  91 /   0  10  10  10
Carlsbad                 68  88  70  92 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                   72  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            69  92  71  94 /   0  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           64  82  66  85 /  10  20  10  10
Hobbs                    67  88  68  90 /  20  10  10  10
Marfa                    62  85  62  85 /  10  40  10  50
Midland Intl Airport     70  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  10
Odessa                   69  89  71  91 /   0  10  10  10
Wink                     70  91  70  93 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99