897
FXUS64 KMAF 191037
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 535 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

- Critical fire weather continues today. After today winds weaken
  and fire weather conditions improve to elevated/near critical
  (mostly due to the persistent extremely dry conditions).

- Widespread freezing temperatures tonight.

- Warmer and quieter conditions through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

An intense storm system over the Midwest continues to provide plenty
of wind to the region, even in the middle of the night. Several
locations are still gusting over 30 mph after many of us saw 60-70
mph gust Tuesday evening. A tight pressure gradient and another
shortwave moving over the area will continue to keep winds fairly
gusty into mid afternoon. Will extend the current Wind Advisory out
into the afternoon. These winds will make it feel rather chilly,
especially after we saw highs near 90 degrees yesterday.
Temperatures today will only top out in the 50s/60s with a few 70s
along the Rio Grande.

High pressure settles directly overhead tonight giving our region
the coldest night we`ve seen in about a month. Lows will fall below
freezing for most locations with the coldest conditions generally
north of I-20 and across the higher terrain. Take your cold weather
precautions for plants and pets given how warm it has been as of
late. Southerly winds return Thursday with highs back near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

In a strange but welcome turn of events, the long term period
actually looks fairly quiet. A couple of systems move over the
northern US later this week and into the weekend. However, these
shortwave systems will have very little impact on our weather, only
dropping a couple of weak cold fronts into our area. At best, these
fronts will briefly shift winds northerly and temporarily stunt the
general warming trend that will persist throughout the long term
period. Everyday will feature highs in the upper 70s and/or 80s
across the majority of the area (with higher temperatures along the
Rio Grande), and lows in the 40s and 50s. The best part of all of
this is that winds look to remain relatively much lighter through
the extended period, which will limit dust and fire weather concerns
(though fire weather will remain at least elevated for the region
due to the continuation of very dry conditions - see the Fire
Weather Discussion below).

Sprang

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

VFR has returned to all terminals. Winds have mostly gone light,
but will quickly increase from the northwest shortly after
sunrise. Expect gusts near 35 kts through the morning before
diminishing by late afternoon. Patchy BLDU is possible, but
visibilities will likely remain VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

The extremely dry weather and high ERCs (most locations are above
the 97th percentile now) will persist through the short and long
term periods. Gusty winds will remain through the rest of today, and
therefore so will critical fire weather conditions. As a result, and
despite cooler temperatures, the Fire Weather Watch for today has
been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for the whole area (minus Chavez
County). Nevertheless, after today winds become much lighter through
the rest of the forecast period. Fire weather conditions will remain
at least elevated due to how dry its been and how dry it will
continue to be. However, it does appear we will, thankfully, see a
respite in critical fire weather after we get through today! We will
keep a close eye on this though, as a couple of weak fronts will
move across the area this weekend into early next week. If winds do
end up being stronger with/behind these fronts than currently
forecast, critical fire weather conditions will return.

Sprang

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  30  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 62  29  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   74  37  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            66  34  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           56  32  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    59  27  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    62  18  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  31  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  32  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     64  31  68  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Borden-Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Dawson-Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
     Howard-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Martin-
     Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for Andrews-Borden-
     Central Brewster-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Crane-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern
     Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa
     Plateau-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County
     Plains-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for Eddy Plains-Lea-
     Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy
     County Plains-Northern Lea-Southern Lea.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...29